Election outcomes, resource security and
regional divergence in economic conditions to be key events to
watch next year
NEW
YORK, Dec. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The
geopolitical rebalancing that marked shifts in collaboration and
competition between nations in 2023 will continue to drive
segmentation and volatility in the coming year, according to a new
S&P Global Market Intelligence report released today. In the
report, 2024, A disjointed world, S&P Global Market
Intelligence's economic, geopolitical risk and supply chain
analysts identify the five overlapping themes that will drive
global political and economic relationships in 2024: economic fault
lines, geopolitical reordering, supply chain resilience, logistics
rewired and resource security.
![Key elections in 2024 Key elections in 2024](https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2292059/SPGI_Picture1.jpg)
"Among the indicators for volatility are a series of key
elections across regions, central banks' monetary policy decisions,
efforts to optimize the supply chain and access to critical
resources," said Natznet Tesfay, Head of Insights &
Analysis, Global Intelligence and Analytics, S&P Global Market
Intelligence. "Businesses will continue facing the challenge of
anticipating and quantifying the outcomes of geopolitical and
economic events; however, this new reality is likely to surface
potential opportunities."
S&P Global Market Intelligence identified the defining
geopolitical and global macroeconomic themes next year as:
- Economic fault lines: Regional divergence in
inflation rates and monetary policy is exposing economic fault
lines. The ongoing stress caused by tighter financial conditions
and growing geopolitical tensions appears likely to tip some
economies into recession.
- Geopolitical reordering: National interest
objectives will influence reordering of relationships between
countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges,
flows of trade and investment. An important indicator underlying
the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcome of
scheduled elections including India, Indonesia, Mexico, the US and to the European
Parliament.
- Supply chain resilience: Supply chain resilience is
vital amid significant uncertainties related to labor and policy
implementation. Labor costs will remain high, and strikes will
continue to be a risk in 2024. Firms in 2024 will need to decide
between the more conservative "just in case" approach to inventory
management and the leaner "just in time" approach.
- Logistics rewired: Geopolitical tensions, coupled with
intentions to diversify sourcing, are likely to increase risk for
global supply chains in 2024. As supply chains are reshaped, and in
many cases broadened, they will rely on cargo transportation
outside of established shipping hubs — generally within the APAC
and Middle East regions.
- Resource security: Prompted by extreme weather events,
social and geopolitical challenges, and delayed energy transition
targets, governments will focus on promoting strong industrial and
sourcing policies that encourage and reward self-sufficiency to
secure essential critical inputs and key minerals for 2024 and
beyond.
Additional analysis is available here. To request a copy of
2024, A disjointed world, please contact
press.mi@spglobal.com.
S&P Global Market Intelligence's opinions, quotes, and
credit-related and other analyses are statements of opinion as of
the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or
recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make
any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any
security.
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Media Contact
Katherine Smith
S&P Global Market Intelligence
+1 781-301-9311
katherine.smith@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Market Intelligence