Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE:SGL) is a
non-diversified, closed-end management investment company seeking a
high level of current income as a primary objective and capital
appreciation as a secondary objective through investments in US and
foreign debt securities.
Fund Commentary for the third quarter of 2015 from UBS Asset
Management (Americas) Inc. (“UBS AM”), the Fund’s investment
advisor
Market review
The global fixed income market largely produced positive results
during the third quarter of 2015. While US economic data generally
improved, the Federal Reserve Board (the "Fed") kept rates on hold
at its September meeting. In the Fed's official statement it said,
"The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for
economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is
monitoring developments abroad." In her press conference following
the meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that policy makers had
decided to take “a little bit more time to evaluate the likely
impacts” of recent market volatility on the US before raising
interest rates. For the quarter as a whole, the yield on the
two-year Treasury was unchanged at 0.64%, whereas the yield on the
10-year Treasury fell from 2.35% to 2.06%. Overseas, government
yields generally declined. This was partially driven by several
flights to quality given investor concerns over slower growth in
China and the potential ramifications for the global economy.
The overall US bond market, as measured by the Barclays US
Aggregate Index, gained 1.23% during the third quarter, while the
global government bond markets returned 1.71%, as measured by the
Citigroup World Government Bond Index.1,2 The Citigroup World
Government Bond Index (hedged in US dollars) returned 1.91% for the
quarter.3
Sector overview
Most US investment grade spread sectors posted positive total
returns during the period, whereas lower-quality securities, such
as high yield corporate bonds, generated weak results.4 After a
modest advance in July, the emerging markets debt asset class
produced weak results as the quarter progressed, triggered by
weaker growth in China, falling commodity prices and several
geopolitical issues. All told, the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets
Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) declined 2.04% during the quarter.5
Local currency emerging markets debt, as measured by the J.P.
Morgan Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Global Diversified
(GBI–EM Global Diversified), declined 10.54% during the
quarter.6
Performance review
During the third quarter of 2015, the Fund posted a net asset
value total return of -2.13% and a market price total return of
-1.53%. On a net asset value total return basis, the Fund
underperformed its benchmark, the Strategic Global Benchmark (the
“Index”), which gained 0.47% over the quarter.7
The Fund's overweights to investment grade and high yield
corporate bonds detracted from performance during the quarter.
Their spreads widened given concerns over global growth and periods
of investor risk aversion. In particular, our higher beta holdings
were negative for results. Out-of-benchmark allocations to agency
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and commercial mortgage-backed
securities (CMBS), along with our exposure to sovereign agencies,
also dragged on returns. Elsewhere, yield curve positioning was a
headwind for performance. In particular, an underweight to the
belly of the curve (7–20 year maturities) detracted from results.
On the upside, the Fund's currency positioning contributed to
performance. In particular, an overweight to the US dollar was
beneficial.
Within the emerging markets debt asset class, our underweight to
Ukraine was negative for performance. While the country's economic
backdrop remains extremely weak and debt restructuring continues,
investor sentiment for Ukraine improved and its debt rallied in
August. An overweight to Brazilian local debt and the Brazilian
real detracted from performance, as did our position in Petrobras.
Brazil's economic fundamentals weakened further during the quarter,
leading to downgrades by two of the three major rating agencies.
Our allocation to Russian quasi-sovereign bank bonds was
beneficial, as they outperformed sovereign debt.8
Several adjustments were made to the portfolio during the
quarter. We increased the Fund's duration, moving from a two-year
short position to being close to neutral versus the benchmark. From
a currency perspective, we pared the Fund's overweight to the US
dollar. Finally, we tactically traded credit derivatives to help
reduce the Fund's exposure to credit risk.
Outlook
We maintain our view that the US economy will continue to
expand, albeit at a fairly modest pace. We also expect inflation to
remain relatively muted. In terms of the Fed interest rate
"liftoff," it appears that it will commence late in 2015, or
perhaps in early 2016. Turning our attention overseas, growth is
slowly improving in Europe. However, with minimal inflation
pressure, we believe the European Central Bank will maintain its
accommodative monetary policy. We are cautious regarding growth in
Asia. In particular, we are concerned about moderating growth in
China and the potential spill over to other emerging markets
countries, especially those with commodity-driven economies.
Turning to the fixed income market, credit spreads have widened,
partially driven by a challenging supply/demand technical
environment. In addition, earnings growth has slowed, and we may be
getting closer to the end of the credit cycle. That said,
valuations appear attractive given current spreads and may lead to
compelling entry points for certain securities.
We maintain our cautious outlook for the emerging markets asset
class. Growth in many developing countries remains challenged. In
addition, the US Federal Reserve's decision to not raise interest
rates at its September meeting has led to concerns regarding the
health of the US economy. Against this backdrop, the demand for
commodities remains relatively lackluster, which is negatively
affecting the economic fundamentals in many developing countries.
Turning to the emerging markets debt asset class, spreads are wider
than their historical average and appear to be pricing in a
negative scenario. Should there be a positive economic surprise, it
may lead to some spread narrowing. Within the asset class, we
currently maintain our preference for US dollar-denominated debt
over local debt.
Note regarding material event subsequent to quarterly
commentary period: As previously announced in a press release
issued on October 13, 2015, based upon the recommendation of UBS
Asset Management (Americas) Inc., the Fund's investment advisor,
the Fund's Board of Directors determined that liquidation and
dissolution of the Fund is in the best interests of the Fund's
shareholders. A proposed plan of liquidation will be submitted for
the approval of the Fund’s shareholders at the Fund’s 2016 annual
meeting of shareholders, which is expected to be held in March
2016. If the shareholders approve the proposed plan, the
liquidation and dissolution of the Fund will take place as soon as
reasonably practicable, but in no event later than December 31,
2016 (absent unforeseen circumstances).
Portfolio statistics as of September 30, 20159
Top ten countries (bond holdings only)10
Percentage of net assets (%) United States
42.8 United Kingdom 6.8 New Zealand 3.9 Brazil
3.1 Germany 2.6 France 2.5 Canada 2.2 Russia
2.0 Spain 1.8 Mexico 1.8
Total
69.6 Top ten currency breakdown (includes
all securities and other instruments)11
Percentage of net assets (%) United States Dollar
74.6 Euro 8.0 New Zealand Dollar 3.9 British Pound
3.5 Australian Dollar 2.9 Brazilian Real 0.8
Canadian Dollar 0.8 Mexican Peso 0.6 Russian Ruble
0.4 Swedish Krona 0.1
Credit
quality12 Percentage of net assets (%) AAA
3.9 US Treasury13 2.5 US Agency13,14 1.8 AA
8.8 A 8.1 BBB 21.8 BB 22.3 B 8.1
CCC and Below 1.4 Non-rated 16.8 Cash and other
assets, less liabilities 4.5
Total
100.0 Characteristics Net
asset value per share15 $9.29 Market price per share15
$7.93 Duration16 6.9 yrs Weighted average maturity
6.7 yrs
Any performance information reflects the deduction of the Fund’s
fees and expenses, as indicated in its shareholder reports, such as
investment advisory and administration fees, custody fees, exchange
listing fees, etc. It does not reflect any transaction charges that
a shareholder may incur when (s)he buys or sells shares (e.g., a
shareholder’s brokerage commissions).
Disclaimers Regarding Fund Commentary - The Fund
Commentary is intended to assist shareholders in understanding how
the Fund performed during the period noted. Views and opinions were
current as of the date of this press release. They are not
guarantees of performance or investment results and should not be
taken as investment advice. Investment decisions reflect a variety
of factors, and the Fund and UBS AM reserve the right to change
views about individual securities, sectors and markets at any time.
As a result, the views expressed should not be relied upon as a
forecast of the Fund’s future investment intent.
Past performance does not predict future performance. The return
and value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's
shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original
cost. Any Fund net asset value ("NAV") returns cited in a Fund
Commentary assume, for illustration only, that dividends and other
distributions, if any, were reinvested at the NAV on the payable
dates. Any Fund market price returns cited in a Fund Commentary
assume that all dividends and other distributions, if any, were
reinvested at prices obtained under the Fund's Dividend
Reinvestment Plan. Returns for periods of less than one year have
not been annualized. Returns do not reflect the deduction of taxes
that a shareholder would pay on Fund dividends and other
distributions, if any, or on the sale of Fund shares.
Investing in the Fund entails specific risks, such as
interest rate, credit and the risks associated with investing in
the securities of non-US issuers, including those located in
emerging market countries. The value of the Fund's
investments in foreign securities may fall due to adverse
political, social and economic developments abroad, and due to
decreases in foreign currency values relative to the US
dollar. Further detailed information regarding the Fund,
including a discussion of principal objectives, principal
investment strategies and principal risks, may be found in the fund
overview located at
http://www.ubs.com/closedendfundsinfo. You may also
request copies of the fund overview by calling the Closed-End Funds
Desk at 888-793 8637.
©UBS 2015. All rights reserved. The key symbol and UBS are among
the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS.
1 The Barclays US Aggregate Index is an unmanaged
broad-based index designed to measure the US-dollar-denominated,
investment grade, taxable bond market. The index includes bonds
from the Treasury, government-related, corporate, mortgage-backed,
asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed sectors. Investors
should note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and
expenses. 2 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index is an
unmanaged market-capitalization-weighted index designed to measure
the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment grade
sovereign bonds with a one-year minimum maturity. Investors should
note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and
expenses. 3 The Citigroup World Government Bond Index (hedged in
USD) is an unmanaged market-capitalization-weighted index designed
to measure the performance of fixed-rate, local currency,
investment grade sovereign bonds with a one-year minimum maturity
and is hedged back to the US dollar. Investors should note that
indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses. 4 A
spread sector refers to non-government fixed income sectors, such
as investment grade or high yield bonds, commercial mortgage-backed
securities (CMBS), etc. 5 The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond
Index Global (EMBI Global) is an unmanaged index which is designed
to track total returns for US dollar-denominated debt instruments
issued by emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities:
Brady bonds, loans and Eurobonds. Investors should note that
indices do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses. 6 The
J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index–Emerging Markets Global
Diversified (GBI–EM) is an unmanaged index which is designed to
track the total returns for local currency debt instruments issued
by emerging market governments. 7 The Strategic Global Benchmark is
an unmanaged index compiled by the advisor, constructed as follows:
67% Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI) and 33% JP Morgan
Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global). Investors should
note that indices do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses.
8 Quasi-sovereign bonds are securities issued by entities supported
by the local government. 9 The Fund’s portfolio is actively
managed, and its portfolio composition will vary over time. 10
Excludes exposures obtained via derivatives (e.g., swaps). 11
Forward foreign currency contracts are reflected at unrealized
appreciation/depreciation; this may not align with the risk
exposure described in the portfolio commentary section which
reflects forward foreign currency contracts based on contract
notional amount. As of the most recent period end, September 30,
2015, the Fund maintained a risk exposure to non-US dollar
currencies equal to approximately 27% of the Fund. 12 Credit
quality ratings shown in the table are based on those assigned by
Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw-Hill
Financial (“S&P”), to individual portfolio holdings. S&P is
an independent ratings agency. Rating reflected represents S&P
individual debt issue credit rating. While S&P may provide a
credit rating for a bond issuer (e.g., a specific company or
country), certain issues, such as some sovereign debt, may not be
covered or rated and, therefore, are reflected as non-rated for the
purposes of this table. Credit ratings range from AAA, being the
highest, to D, being the lowest, based on S&P’s measures;
ratings of BBB or higher are considered to be investment grade
quality. Unrated securities do not necessarily indicate low
quality. Further information regarding S&P’s rating methodology
may be found on its website at www.standardandpoors.com. Please
note that any references to credit quality made in the commentary
preceding the table may reflect ratings based on multiple providers
(not just S&P) and thus may not align with the data represented
in this table. 13 S&P downgraded long-term US government debt
on August 5, 2011 to AA+. Other rating agencies continue to rate
long-term US government debt in their highest ratings categories.
The Fund’s aggregate exposure to AA-rated debt as of June 30, 2014
would include the percentages indicated above for AA, US Treasury
and US Agency debt but has been broken out into three separate
categories to facilitate understanding. 14 Includes agency
debentures and agency mortgage-backed securities. 15 Net asset
value (NAV) and market price will fluctuate. 16 Duration is a
measure of price sensitivity of a fixed income investment or
portfolio (expressed as % change in price) to a 1 percentage point
(i.e., 100 basis points) change in interest rates, accounting for
optionality in bonds such as prepayment risk and call/put features.
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UBS Asset ManagementClosed-End Funds Desk: 888-793
8637ubs.com
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