OPUSD Optimism

A crypto analyst on X is confident that Bitcoin has bottomed and is poised for major gains in the sessions ahead. Interestingly, the bullish outlook hinges on the Bitcoin market cap retesting all-time highs at press time.  Will BTC Rally? Market Dynamics Changing So far, the Bitcoin price is around 2021 highs in USD terms but recently broke all-time highs, peaking at around $73,800. This fluctuation is also reflected in its market cap. It currently stands at $1.25 trillion, down 5% in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs See 4 Consecutive Days Of Outflows, Here’s What Happened Last Time Notably, it is at the same price level as in 2021, when Bitcoin prices peaked, recording new all-time highs. While optimism abounds and the trader expects more sharp price expansions in the days ahead, it is not immediately clear whether the coin will rip higher, aligning with this forecast. Bitcoin is volatile and has remained so despite changing market dynamics.  At the same time, unlike in the past, Bitcoin prices are driven not only by retail forces but by institutions. These institutions are regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which also approved the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).  This Bitcoin derivative product has been the primary driving force in the past ten weeks. This is from looking at how prices have evolved since its approval in mid-January 2024.  However, since BlackRock and Fidelity are regulated by the United States SEC, unlike retailers, they cannot act as they wish. Considering the millions and billions of dollars at play, their comments or assessments on the coin, now and in the future, can greatly impact sentiment. Sentiment Is Dented, BTC Facing Headwinds Sentiment has been dented when writing. Even with the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) ‘s decision to hold rates at 5.5%, the highest in 2023, lifting prices, there has been no solid follow-through in price action. The coin remains steady below $70,000. Whether prices will rally over the weekend remains to be seen. However, for now, there are some headwinds to consider. Related Reading: XRP Set For Rapid Rally, Target At $5 In The Short Term First, there has been a slowdown in inflows to spot BTC ETFs. At the same time, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have increased. Second, after rallying sharply from October 2023, a cool-off before halving might see the coin trend lower. Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView