Joint landmark Oxford Economics/Cognizant
study predicts generative AI will affect 90% of U.S. jobs,
underscoring the critical need for strategic reskilling to maintain
economic growth
TEANECK, N.J., Jan. 10, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- In partnership with
Oxford Economics, Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) today revealed findings
from its new economic impact study New Work, New World,
which predicted that 90% of jobs will be disrupted in some way by
generative AI (gen AI), setting the stage for a profound shift in
how we approach work, productivity and economic growth. The study
also found that the technology's impact will be influenced by the
rate of business adoption and how quickly individuals can adapt to
new ways of working.
"Our study aims to lift the curtain on the effects generative AI
may have on our global workforce," said Adrian Cooper, CEO at Oxford Economics. "The
research findings showcase just how quickly this technology might
disrupt the trajectory of the U.S. economy, offering invaluable
insights for leaders to harness its potential and adapt
swiftly."
Generative AI offers the potential to improve operational
efficiency, create new revenue streams, innovate products and
services, and ultimately redefine businesses. To quantify
generative AI's potential impact on productivity and the future of
work, Cognizant partnered with Oxford Economics to create an
economic model that explores three scenarios of U.S. businesses'
generative AI adoption. This model considered 18,000 tasks that
drive the U.S. economy, and carefully examines the impact
Generative AI may have on the jobs that ladder up to these tasks.
While focused on the U.S. workforce, the general themes that
emerged from the findings can be applied globally. The research
unveiled key insights, including:
- AI adoption will skyrocket over the next decade
before settling into maturity: Businesses are in the
experimental phase of adoption for AI capabilities. However, the
findings reveal that adoption could leap from 13% to 31% in just
four to eight years. After the 15-year mark, the findings predict
that adoption may slow but will continue to grow for at least 15
more years.
- Economic advancement could soar: Generative AI
technology could boost U.S. productivity by 1.7-3.5% and grow the
U.S. GDP between $477 billion and
$1 trillion in annual value over the
next 10 years, based on business adoption rates.
- Simultaneously, the job market could be disrupted: Half
of all jobs (52%) are predicted to significantly change as
generative AI is integrated to automate job tasks. As a result,
approximately 9% of the current U.S. workforce may be displaced,
with 1% potentially struggling to find new employment based on
historical economic shifts.
- Jobs with higher levels of knowledge work may be most
affected: In the past, technology advances and automation have
impacted mainly manual labor and process-centric knowledge work.
Generative AI is poised to do the opposite, having a higher
disruption on knowledge work. Additionally, jobs involving credit
analysis, computer programming, web development, database
administration, and graphic design already have a theoretical
maximum exposure score of about 50%. By 2032, as technology
advances, some jobs' exposure scores may climb to 80%.
- Even CEOs will feel an impact: The data found that
C-Suite executives – even CEOs – could see a theoretical maximum
exposure score (the degree to which a job's tasks are prone to
being automated by generative AI) of more than 25%, as they begin
using gen AI for everything from competitive assessments to
strategic decision-making.
"Generative AI has already astonished us with its capabilities
across industries, but the true impact of its integration in our
daily business operations has just scratched the surface," said
Ravi Kumar S, Chief Executive Officer, Cognizant. "To apply the
technology's potential to amplify our productivity, we must
understand its full influence on the future of work and come
together to create the best opportunities for people to grow
alongside it."
Reskilling The Workforce as AI Advances
While the timeline of this research spans more than a decade,
Cognizant believes that leaders across all sectors of society
should work together today to establish a new trust compact that
will enable businesses, workers, and economies to thrive in the age
of generative AI. As this technology becomes commonplace in the
workforce, new employee skills will be in demand to support areas
including business strategy and AI management. Reskilling programs,
once seen as a tactical add-on to an employee's career path, will
become an essential part of the workday, with time allocated for
training and education.
In line with this vision, Cognizant recently launched its
Synapse initiative, designed to revolutionize and rebalance the
landscape of tech education and workforce development by redefining
opportunities for more than one million individuals worldwide.
Drawing on Cognizant's deep expertise and long history as a tech
reskiller, the initiative aims to create a new, employable talent
pool for the expanding digital economy by 2026. Read more about
Synapse here.
To view the complete study and learn more, please visit
https://www.cognizant.com/us/en/gen-ai-economic-model-oxford-economics.
Methodology: Cognizant New Work, New World
Study
Oxford Economics was commissioned by Cognizant to
assess and forecast the economic impact of Generative AI technology
on the United States over the next
10 years.
The project was executed through five main phases of work that
sequentially enabled the development of the assumed inputs for
Oxford's Global Economic Model (GEM). These inputs were designed to
reflect how we anticipate the implementation of generative AI
technologies by businesses in the United
States over the forecast horizon could influence structural
drivers of economic activity, notably total factor productivity
(TFP) growth. To reflect the uncertainty inherent in such a process
three scenarios were run to develop a range of outcomes. For the
full methodology, click here.
About Cognizant
Cognizant (Nasdaq: CTSH) engineers modern businesses. We help our
clients modernize technology, reimagine processes and transform
experiences so they can stay ahead in our fast-changing world.
Together, we're improving everyday life. See how at
www.cognizant.com or @cognizant.
For more information, contact:
Corporate
Gabby Gugliocciello
Gabrielle.Gugliocciello@cognizant.com
India
Rashmi Vasisht
rashmi.vasisht@cognizant.com
Americas / EMEA / APJ
Christina Schneider
christina.schneider@cognizant.com
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release includes statements that may constitute
forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor
provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995,
the accuracy of which are necessarily subject to risks,
uncertainties and assumptions as to future events that may not
prove to be accurate. These statements include, but are not limited
to, express or implied forward-looking statements relating to the
adoption of generative artificial intelligence, the effects of
generative artificial intelligence on the workforce and economy and
the effectiveness and results of our new Synapse initiative. These
statements are neither promises nor guarantees but are the findings
of the study discussed above and remain subject to a variety of
risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control,
which could cause actual results to differ materially from those
contemplated in these forward-looking statements. Existing and
prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on
these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date
hereof. Factors that could cause outcomes to differ materially from
those expressed or implied include general economic conditions, the
impact of technological development and competition, the
competitive and rapidly changing nature of the markets we compete
in, the competitive marketplace for talent and its impact on
employee recruitment and retention, and the other factors discussed
in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings
with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Cognizant undertakes
no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events, or
otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities
law.
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