When Will Bitcoin Bull Run Begin? This Could Be The Metric To Watch
27 Dezember 2023 - 11:30PM
NEWSBTC
A pattern in the supply of the Bitcoin long-term holders could
provide some hints about when the next bull run might begin in
earnest. Bitcoin HODLer Balance Has Followed A Specific Pattern In
Previous Cycles According to the market intelligence platform
IntoTheBlock, the supply of the BTC HODLers is “an excellent
indicator for measuring market cycles.” The “HODLers” or long-term
holders (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have held onto
their coins since at least a year ago without having sold or
transferred them on the blockchain. Related Reading: Polygon Breaks
Out Of Symmetrical Triangle, Analyst Puts This Target The LTHs are
the resolute hands in the market, which rarely sell their coins
even when a profitable opportunity has presented itself or a deep
price crash has occurred. One way to track the behavior of these
diamond hands is through the combined amount of balance they carry
in their wallets. The chart below shows this Bitcoin metric trend
over the past few years. The value of the metric seems to have been
steadily going up in recent months | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As
displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the
HODLers has been showing some growth over the past couple of years,
suggesting that the LTHs have been accumulating. This rise in the
indicator has also continued through the latest rally, implying
that the LTHs aren’t yet ready to start taking their profits.
Something to note is that when the metric goes up, it doesn’t mean
buying is happening in the present. The indicator naturally has a
1-year lag associated with it, as coins must mature for that long
before they can be included in the cohort. However, this only
applies to buying as the holders moving their coins to sell
instantly reset the age back to zero and, hence, remove them from
the group. In the chart, the analytics firm has highlighted a
pattern that the Bitcoin LTH supply has observed during the leadup
to past bull runs. It would appear that the HODLers have shown
accumulation in such periods. On the other hand, the start of
selling from this cohort coincided with the beginning of the bull
rally in proper. So far, the HODLers have only been accumulating
recently, implying that the market may be in the pre-bull run
phase. Related Reading: Fantom (FTM) To Rocket Up To $1.60 If This
Happens: Analyst If the historical pattern indeed holds for the
current cycle as well, then the HODLer supply could be one to
watch, as a significant downtrend in it could turn out to be a
signal that the bull run has begun once more. BTC Price Bitcoin had
plunged towards the $41,700 mark yesterday, but the asset has
already seen some sharp recovery as its price is now trading around
the $43,000 level. Looks like BTC has jumped up during the past day
| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from
Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com
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