TIDMTTE
TotalEnergies SE (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE):
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key
elements impacting TotalEnergies' fourth quarter 2023 aggregates
are shown below:
Main indicators
4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22
EUR/$ 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.02
Brent ($/b) 84.3 86.7 78.1 81.2 88.8
Average liquids price
* (1) ($/b) 80.2 78.9 72.0 73.4 80.6
Average gas price *
(1) ($/Mbtu) 6.17 5.47 5.98 8.89 12.74
Average LNG price **
(1) ($/Mbtu) 10.28 9.56 9.84 13.27 14.83
Variable Cost Margin,
European refining
*** ($/t) 50.1 95.1 42.7 87.8 73.6
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity
affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable
costs realized by TotalEnergies' European refining business (equal
to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by
TotalEnergies' European refining and the crude purchases as well as
associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in
tons).
(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities,
respectively.
Main elements impacting the quarter aggregates
-- Hydrocarbon production is expected around 2.45 Mboe/d (as indicated at
the end of October), benefiting from LNG production growth, partially
compensating for the Canadian oil sands assets disposals, effective this
quarter. Due to these disposals, the effective tax rate of Exploration &
Production is expected to increase.
-- Integrated LNG results will reflect the positive evolution of prices
and production volumes.
-- Integrated Power results are expected to be above $500 million, with
the fourth quarter cash-flow further benefiting from dividends
distribution from equity affiliates.
-- Downstream results are impacted by the decrease in refining margins and
by weak chemicals demand in Europe. In addition, the refining utilization
rate is lower this quarter, due to turnarounds at Satorp and Antwerp and
the gradual restart of the Port Arthur refinery.
2023 Sensitivities*
Estimated impact
on adjusted net Estimated impact
operating on cash flow
Change income from operations
+/- 0.1 $ per
Dollar EUR -/+ 0.1 B$ 0 B$
Average liquids
price** +/- 10 $/b +/- 2.5 B$ +/- 3.0 B$
European gas price
- NBP / TTF +/- 2 $/Mbtu +/- 0.4 B$ +/- 0.4 B$
Variable cost
margin, European
refining (VCM) +/- 10 $/t +/- 0.4 B$ +/- 0.5 B$
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of
the previous year's fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are
estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies' portfolio in
2023. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based
on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-EUR
sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially
attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 80 $/b Brent environment.
A new market indicator for European refining margin
TotalEnergies will introduce, from 1Q24, a new market indicator
for European refining, the "European Refining Margin Marker" to
replace the "Variable Cost Margin, European refining". This
indicator will be calculated based on public market prices ($/t)
with a formula using a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields
and variable costs representative of the European refining system
of TotalEnergies, as disclosed here below.
Corresponding 2023 data is provided below to reflect this
change.
4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23
European Refining Margin Marker
(ERM) ($/t) 52.6 100.6 40.1 90.7
The formula may be reviewed on a yearly basis in case of changes
in market conditions, such as global supply and demand balances,
CO(2) EU ETS evolution and/or TotalEnergies' European refining
portfolio.
NWE Crude Markers %weight
High Sulfur
(Arab Light, Forties, Johan Sverdrup) 50.0%
Low Sulfur
(WTP, Ekofisk) 50.0%
NWE Product Markers %weight
LPG 3.0%
Naphtha 7.0%
Gasoline 20.0%
Distillates 52.5%
Fuel Oil 12.0%
Variable costs
Natural Gas (TTF) -2.5%
CO(2) (EU ETS) -7.0%
Non energy costs -8.0 EUR/t
Disclaimer
The terms "TotalEnergies", "TotalEnergies company" and "Company"
in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the
consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by
TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" may also
be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities
in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a
shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies'
internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not
intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will
affect TotalEnergies SE's results or to provide an estimate of the
third quarter 2023 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent
permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the
use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the
meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995,
notably with respect to the financial condition, results of
operations, business activities and industrial strategy of
TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding
the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of
TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon
neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome
desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be
deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These
forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use
of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as
"envisions", "intends", "anticipates", "believes", "considers",
"plans", "expects", "thinks", "targets", "aims" or similar
terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this
document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions
prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory
environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of
the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and
should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives,
objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to
be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a
significant difference between the actual results and those
initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to
the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or
due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price
fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the
demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production
results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost
reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting
business operations, changes in laws and regulations including
those related to the environment and climate, currency
fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments,
changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in
consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates
particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets
and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any
obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or
statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether
as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The
information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse
effect on TotalEnergies' business, financial condition, including
its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the
value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided
in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document
which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des
Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with
the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC").
Financial information by business segment is reported in
accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal
segment information that is used to manage and measure the
performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain
alternative performance indicators are presented, such as
performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e.,
special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in
fair value): adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating
income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to
facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of
TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They
allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and
measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results
(adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted
net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for
special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For
further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last
published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated
financial statements.
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CONTACT:
TotalEnergies SE
SOURCE: TotalEnergies SE
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