Demand for Thin and Light Designs Puts a Positive Outlook on IDC's Forecast for Notebook PCs and Detachable Tablets
11 September 2019 - 3:48PM
Business Wire
Shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs), inclusive of
traditional PCs and tablets, are expected to decline at a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.4% over the 2019-2023 forecast
period. However, 2-in-1 devices (convertible PCs and detachable
tablets) and ultraslim notebook PCs are expected to grow 5%
collectively over the same period. According to a new forecast from
the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly
Personal Computing Device Tracker, overall PCD shipments will drop
below 400 million in 2020, which would be the first time this has
happened since 2010, the year the original iPad launched. The
bright spots in this challenged category have been thin and light
products and detachable tablets, which includes Apple's iPad Pro
devices and Microsoft's Surface tablets.
"So far in 2019 we've seen some unexpected positive trends
within the traditional PC market," said Ryan Reith, program vice
president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "The
commercial demand driven by the approaching end of support for
Windows 7 was somewhat expected and still leaves room for growth in
the second half of 2019. But we've also seen some surprising areas
of consumer demand. Concerns about whether tariffs will drive
consumer costs up has many vendors trying to put product into the
channel early, so the real focus will be monitoring sell out for
the remainder of the year and into 2020."
IDC anticipates a splintering of the 2-in-1 category as Apple
and Microsoft continue to push forward the detachable form factor
while other PC vendors continue to promote convertible PCs. Looking
ahead, IDC expects iOS detachables will capture almost one quarter
of the 2-in-1 market throughout the forecast. "Apple's support for
a physical keyboard by adding a smart connector to the 2019 iPad
and the launch of iPadOS will help to further cement detachables as
a viable alternative to modern notebooks and convertibles," said
Jitesh Ubrani research manager for IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device
Trackers.
Outside of the growth from these modern form factors, the
introduction of 5G will also play a role in the PCD market,
although the ramp is expected to follow smartphones. IDC forecasts
that by 2023 10% of detachable tablets will have built in 5G, which
is in addition to another 29% running 4G. Meanwhile, the number of
ultraslim and convertible notebooks with cellular connectivity is
also expected to grow with a double-digit CAGR.
Personal Computing Device Forecast,
2019-2023 (shipments in millions)
Product
2019 Shipments*
2019 Share*
2023 Shipments*
2023 Share*
2019-2023 CAGR*
2-in-1
40.9
10.2%
47.5
13.0%
3.8%
Desktop + Desktop Workstation
92.4
23.0%
77.5
21.2%
-4.3%
Notebook + Mobile Workstation
73.0
18.1%
47.7
13.0%
-10.1%
Slate Tablet
116.0
28.8%
93.8
25.6%
-5.2%
Ultraslim
80.0
19.9%
99.3
27.1%
5.5%
Grand Total
402.2
100.0%
365.7
100.0%
-2.4%
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal
Computing Device Tracker, September 11, 2019
Notes:
* All figures represent forecast data.
- Traditional PCs include Desktop, Notebook, and
Workstation.
- 2-in-1 devices are a category including convertible PCs and
detachable tablets. Convertible PCs are notebook computers equipped
with an integrated keyboard and display that can be used in either
a traditional notebook configuration or a slate configuration. A
detachable tablet meets all the criteria of a slate tablet but is
designed to operate with a first-party keyboard designed
specifically for the device.
In addition to the table above, a graphic illustrating IDC's
worldwide PCD forecast by form factor is available by viewing this
press release on IDC.com.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker
gathers data in more than 90 countries and provides detailed,
timely, and accurate information on the global personal computing
device market. This includes data and insight into global trends
around desktops, notebooks, detachable tablets, slate tablets, and
workstations. In addition to insightful analysis, the program
delivers quarterly market share data and a five-year forecast by
country. The research includes historical and forecast trend
analysis.
For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please
contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
About IDC Trackers IDC Tracker products provide accurate
and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of
technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe.
Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are
updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker
results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel
deliverables and on-line query tools.
About IDC International Data Corporation (IDC) is the
premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services,
and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and
consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts
worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on
technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110
countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals,
business executives, and the investment community to make
fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business
objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of
International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading media, data and
marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit
www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn.
All product and company names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks of their respective holders.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190911005515/en/
Ryan Reith rreith@@idc.com 650-350-6242
Jitesh Ubrani jubrani@idc.com 416-873-0315
Michael Shirer press@idc.com 508-935-4200