Gold Surges to Almost Six-Year High After Fed Hints at Rate Cut
20 Juni 2019 - 1:42PM
Dow Jones News
By Joe Wallace
Metal prices shot up Thursday, lifted by a weaker dollar, after
the Federal Reserve suggested it was willing to lower interest
rates in the coming months.
Gold futures rose 2.8% to $1,386.30 a troy ounce in New York,
putting the securities on course for their biggest one-day advance
since October. Earlier in the day, the precious metal reached a
peak of $1,390.70, its highest since September 2013.
Industrial metals also advanced, led by copper's 1.5% rise to
$5,982 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum, nickel, zinc
and tin all gained 1% or more -- amid a broader rally in global
stocks and bonds, as well as oil -- as investors ramped up bets
that the Fed will soon lower interest rates, weakening the dollar
and boosting commodities priced in the U.S. currency.
The most recent rise in gold prices is the latest leg in a rally
that began late May when President Trump appeared to open up
another front in the trade conflict by threatening Mexico with
tariffs.
The precious metal, considered a safe-haven asset, has gained
8.5% over the past month, boosted by mounting expectations that the
Fed and other central banks will ease monetary policy, as well as
heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and
elsewhere.
The U.S. central bank kept rates steady Wednesday, but Chairman
Jerome Powell said "the case for somewhat more accommodative policy
has strengthened." His comments prompted the interest-rate futures
markets to price in a 100% chance of a reduction in July and a 69%
chance of three or more cuts by the end of 2019, according to CME
Group.
For gold investors, lower interest rates make yield-bearing
assets such as government bonds less attractive. The rate on
10-year Treasury notes slipped to 1.996% Thursday, having fallen
below 2% for the first time since late 2016 after the Fed's
statement.
In a sign of renewed interest among money managers, investors
have plowed more than $885 million into the SPDR Gold Trust
exchange-traded fund, net of redemptions, so far in June.
Industrial metals, in contrast, have been languishing near their
lowest levels of 2019, hurt by concerns about U.S.-China trade
tensions and their impact on global growth. Since base metals are
the building blocks of everything from ships to autos, they are
highly sensitive to momentum in the world economy.
Commodities investors should remain cautious, according to Robin
Bhar, head of metals research at Société Générale.
"There are still a lot of storm clouds hanging over the market,
so let's not get carried away," Mr. Bhar said. Inflation, which can
boost commodity prices, is low in the U.S., the eurozone and Japan,
and "worries over growth haven't gone away." China's efforts to
reduce its dependence on infrastructure projects to bolster growth
may also lead to a reduced appetite for metals, he said.
Other analysts and investors say tightening supplies, the result
of a lack of major investment in new mines after the 2014-15 slump
in commodity prices, have put a floor under prices and are likely
to provide a source of longer-term strength.
"The weakness that we saw in April and May and the bottoming out
in June was detached from market fundamentals," said Kash Kamal, a
strategist at BMO Capital Markets. "If you look at the copper
market, there's no significant mining supply growth this year. Only
in 2022 and beyond will you have significant new copper supply
coming online."
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 20, 2019 07:27 ET (11:27 GMT)
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