IRVINE, Calif., July 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, curator
of the nation's premier property database, today released its
second-quarter 2021 Coronavirus Report spotlighting county-level
housing markets around the United
States that are more or less vulnerable to the impact of the
ongoing Coronavirus pandemic, still endangering the U.S. economy.
The report shows that states along the East Coast, as well as
Illinois, were most at risk in the
second quarter of 2021 - with clusters in New Jersey, Delaware, the Chicago area and central Florida - while the West remained far less
exposed.
But the 50 most at-risk counties around the U.S. were spread
over a wider area than in the first quarter of 2021, as most states
had no more than two counties in the top group in the most recent
time period.
The report reveals that Florida, New
Jersey, other East Coast states and Illinois had 37 of the 50 counties most
exposed to the potential economic impact of the pandemic in the
second quarter of 2021. They included seven counties in the
Chicago metropolitan area, four
near New York City, all three in
Delaware and four in central
Florida.
However, only Florida,
New Jersey, Illinois, Louisiana and Delaware had more than two counties in the top
50, compared to eight states in the first quarter of 2021. The top
50 were scattered across 18 states in the second quarter, compared
to 15 the prior time period.
The only three western counties in the top 50 during the second
quarter of this year were in northern California and southern Arizona.
Markets were considered more or less at risk based on the
percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with
mortgage balances that exceeded the estimated property value and
the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major
home ownership expenses on median-priced houses or condominiums.
The conclusions are drawn from an analysis of the most recent home
affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM.
Rankings were based on a combination of those three categories in
564 counties around the United
States with sufficient data to analyze in first and second
quarters of 2021. Counties were ranked in each category, from
lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a
combination of the three ranks. See below for the full
methodology.
The findings follow a year when the national housing market
continued its decade-long boom even amid the pandemic, with median
single-family home prices rising more than 10 percent across much
of the country. While small indicators of a possible slowdown have
emerged in 2021 in the form of declining home affordability and
slumping investor activity, fuel for further price gains has come
from the pandemic receding, employment growing and the broader
economy improving.
Still, the pandemic remains a threat to the economy and the
housing market as new virus variants appear and clusters of virus
cases continue to plague pockets of the country.
"The Coronavirus pandemic is easing, and the U.S. economy is
gradually coming back to life, which suggests that the nation's
housing market will indeed escape any major damage from the crisis.
No major signs are showing anything different at this point.
Nevertheless, the pandemic is still out there and remains a potent
threat to home sales and values, as well as to the broader
economy," said Todd Teta, chief
product officer with ATTOM. "Amid a generally upbeat outlook, we
continue to see areas that appear more at risk for a fall,
especially in specific areas of the East Coast and Midwest. As we
have throughout the pandemic, we will keep a close eye on those
areas in case the situation worsens and the pandemic surges
again."
Most vulnerable counties clustered around Chicago, New York
City, Delaware and central
Florida
Eighteen of the 50
U.S. counties most vulnerable in the second quarter of 2021 to
housing market troubles connected to the pandemic (from among the
564 counties with enough data to be included in the report) were in
metropolitan areas around New York,
NY, and Chicago, IL, as
well in Delaware and central
Florida.
They included seven that cover Chicago (Cook
County) and its suburbs (De Kalb, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry
and Will counties) and four in the
New York City metropolitan area
(Ocean, Passaic and Sussex counties in New Jersey and Orange County in New
York). The four in central Florida were Highlands County (Sebring), Indian
River (Vero Beach),
Lake County (outside Orlando) and Osceola
County (Kissimmee).
All three Delaware counties –
New Castle (Wilmington), Kent
(Dover) and Sussex
(Georgetown) – made the top 50
list as well in the second quarter of 2021.
Additional counties in Florida,
New Jersey and Illinois also made the top-50 list. Those in
Florida were Bay County (Panama
City), Clay County (outside
Jacksonville) and Marion County (Ocala), FL, while those in New Jersey included Atlantic County (Atlantic City), Cumberland County (Vineland), Gloucester County (outside Philadelphia, PA), Mercer County (Trenton) and Warren
County (near Allentown,
PA). Others in Illinois
were Kankakee County, Madison County (outside St. Louis, MO), Saint Clair County (outside St. Louis, MO) and Tazewell County (outside Peoria).
In addition, Louisiana had
three counties in the top 50 during the second quarter –
Bossier Parish (Shreveport), Livingston Parish (outside Baton Rouge) and Tangipahoa Parish (north of New Orleans).
The only western counties among the top 50 most at risk from
problems connected to the Coronavirus outbreak in the second
quarter of 2021 were Butte County
(Chico), CA; Humboldt County (Eureka), CA and Mohave County, AZ (outside Las Vegas, NV).
Higher levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages
and foreclosure continue to appear in most-at-risk
counties
Major home ownership costs (mortgage payments,
property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes
consumed more than 30 percent of average local wages in 23 of the
50 counties that were most vulnerable to market problems connected
to the virus pandemic in the second quarter of 2021.
At least 15 percent of mortgages were underwater in the first
quarter of 2021 (the latest data available on owners owing more
than their properties are worth) in 33 of the 50 most at-risk
counties. Nationwide, 10 percent of mortgages fell into that
category. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most
at-risk counties were Saint Clair
County (outside St. Louis,
MO) (43.6 percent of mortgages underwater); Delaware County, PA (outside Philadelphia) (36.4 percent); Muscogee County
(Columbus), GA (29 percent);
Monroe County (Stroudsburg), PA (28.2 percent) and
Kankakee County, IL (27.1
percent).
More than one in 2,500 residential properties faced a
foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2021 in 40 of the 50
most at-risk counties. Nationwide, one in 4,046 homes were in that
position. (Foreclosure actions have dropped about 80 percent over
the past year amid a federal moratorium on lenders taking back
properties from homeowners behind on their mortgages during the
virus pandemic.) The highest rates in the top 50 counties were in
Gloucester County, NJ (outside
Philadelphia) (one in 747
residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland) NJ (one in 773); Tazewell County, IL (outside Peoria) (one in 905); Tangipahoa Parish (north of New Orleans) (one in 1,129) and Ocean County (Toms
River), NJ (one in 1,336).
Counties least at-risk concentrated in South and
Midwest
Thirty-six of the 50 counties least vulnerable to
pandemic-related problems from among the 564 included in the
second-quarter report were in the South and Midwest.
Texas had 13 of the 50 least
at-risk counties, including five in the Dallas metropolitan area (Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis
and Tarrant counties) and two in
the Austin metro area
(Travis and Williamson counties). Minnesota had five, including four in the
Minneapolis metro area
(Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey and Scott counties).
Others among the top-50 least at-risk counties with a population
of 500,000 or more included Harris
County (Houston), TX;
Middlesex County, MA (outside
Boston); Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City), UT; Macomb County, MI (outside Detroit) and Suffolk
County (Boston), MA.
Less-vulnerable counties again have lower levels of
unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosure
activity
Major home ownership costs (mortgage, property
taxes and insurance) on the median-priced single-family home
consumed less than 30 percent of average local wages in 44 of the
50 counties that were least at-risk from market problems connected
to the virus pandemic in the second quarter of 2021.
More than 15 percent of mortgages were underwater in the first
quarter of 2021 (with owners owing more than their properties are
worth) in none of the 50 least at-risk counties. Those with the
lowest rates in those counties were Washington County, WI (outside Milwaukee) (1.9 percent underwater);
Chittenden County (Burlington), VT
(2.9 percent); Salt Lake County
(Salt Lake City), UT (3.6
percent); Dallas County, TX (3.7
percent) and Tarrant County
(Fort Worth), TX (4.1
percent).
More than one in 2,500 residential properties faced a
foreclosure action in the second quarter of 2021 in none of the 50
least at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates in those
counties included Missoula County,
MT (no residential properties facing possible foreclosure);
Chittenden County (Burlington), VT
(one in 69,734); Olmstead County (Rochester), MN (one in 65,380); Davidson
County (Nashville), TN (one in
44,624) and Rutherford County (Murfreesboro), TN (one in
39,564).
Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Coronavirus
Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM's second-quarter 2021
residential foreclosure and home affordability reports and
first-quarter 2021 underwater property report. (Press releases for
those reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with
sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the percentage of
residential properties with a foreclosure filing during the second
quarter of 2021, the percentage of average local wages needed to
afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home in the
second quarter of 2021 and the percentage of properties with
outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market
values in the first quarter of 2021. Ranks then were added up to
develop a composite ranking across all three categories. Equal
weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest
composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market
problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered
least vulnerable.
About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium
property data to power products that improve transparency,
innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy.
ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure,
environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more
than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties
covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data
management process involving more than 20 steps validates,
standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by
ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID
— the ATTOM ID. The 20TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in
many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance,
marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery
solutions that include bulk file licenses, property data
APIs, real estate market trends, and more.
Also, introducing our latest solution, that offers immediate
access and streamlines data management – ATTOM Cloud.
Media Contact:
Christine
Stricker
949.748.8428
christine.stricker@attomdata.com
Data and Report Licensing:
949.502.8313
datareports@attomdata.com
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