Affordability and job growth push the Great
Lakes, Midwest regions to the forefront of the forecast
- The hottest major housing markets in 2024, led by Buffalo, Cincinnati and Columbus, will highlight affordability.
- Affordability across the U.S. could improve this year if
mortgage rates ease and wage gains continue.
SEATTLE, Jan. 4, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- Buffalo, New
York, will be the hottest major housing market this year,
according to a new analysis by Zillow®. Affordability is the most
powerful force driving real estate, bringing lower-cost markets in
the Great Lakes, Midwest and South regions to the top of Zillow's
2024 rankings.
"Housing markets are healthiest where affordable home prices and
strong employment are giving young hopefuls a real shot at buying
and starting to build equity," said Anushna Prakash, data scientist
for Zillow Economic Research. "I'm cautiously optimistic that the
housing market will get back on stable footing in 2024 — we
shouldn't see the massive price spikes of the early pandemic or
fast-rising mortgage rates of recent years."
This ranking of the nation's 50 most populous metros takes into
account Zillow's forecast for local home value growth and the speed
at which home sellers are entering contracts with buyers. It also
considers job growth per new home permitted and growth in
owner-occupied households.
Among the front-runners, Buffalo has the highest number of new jobs per
new home permitted — a measure of expected demand. New jobs often
mean new residents, which increases competition and drives prices
up unless new construction can match that additional demand.
Inventory is moving extremely quickly in Cincinnati, and Columbus is home to the fastest expected rise
in owner-occupied households, an indication of family formation and
population growth.
Housing costs hit record highs for both buyers and renters
in 2023. This made buying and selling an expensive proposition,
even for homeowners with plenty of equity. Zillow's most popular
markets in 2023 were relatively affordable, and a Zillow
study of United Van
Lines data shows relocating households were attracted
to areas where houses were roughly $7,500 less expensive than in the area they were
leaving.
Affordability should improve in 2024, but it is still going to
be the biggest driver of the housing market. Competition for homes
is already high in affordable Great Lakes and Midwest markets.
Homes listed in these areas tend to go under contract faster than
the national average.
Charlotte was dubbed Zillow's hottest market for 2023, and
Cleveland and Atlanta also returned from last year's top 10.
San Antonio took a long fall to
the 49th spot, after ranking 13th last year and fourth in
2022.
Latest stats for Zillow's hottest markets in
2024
Market
|
Typical Home
Value
|
Mortgage Payment (5%
Down)
|
Typical
Rent
|
Days on
Market
|
Buffalo, NY
|
$248,445
|
$1,792
|
$1,257
|
14
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
$270,826
|
$1,959
|
$1,527
|
11
|
Columbus, OH
|
$301,138
|
$2,177
|
$1,431
|
11
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
$268,125
|
$1,944
|
$1,468
|
19
|
Providence,
RI
|
$455,609
|
$3,288
|
$2,039
|
14
|
Atlanta, GA
|
$373,212
|
$2,701
|
$1,903
|
26
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
$371,844
|
$2,688
|
$1,791
|
16
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
$215,597
|
$1,556
|
$1,330
|
12
|
Orlando, FL
|
$388,048
|
$2,806
|
$2,013
|
23
|
Tampa, FL
|
$375,338
|
$2,717
|
$2,091
|
24
|
United States
(Average)
|
$347,415
|
$2,514
|
$1,982
|
21
|
Methodology
Zillow analyzed the 50 largest U.S.
metro areas to forecast the hottest, or most competitive, housing
markets of 2024. The analysis incorporates expected home value
appreciation from December 2023
through November 2024, the
anticipated change in home value appreciation from 2023, new jobs
per new housing unit permitted, an estimate of the net new number
of home owning households based on current demographic trends and
the speed at which homes are being sold.
About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc.
(NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a
reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate
website in the United States,
Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they
want by connecting them with digital solutions, great partners, and
easier buying, selling, financing and renting
experiences.
Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include
Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Trulia®, Out
East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, and
Spruce®.
All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow
affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS
#10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2023 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a
Zillow affiliate.
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SOURCE Zillow