After A Dry Year In US,Some Possible Relief For Beverage Cos
15 April 2009 - 7:27PM
Dow Jones News
Beverage companies, pinched by a year of stiff declines in U.S.
soda sales, may be headed toward a little relief in North
America.
Early numbers that track store sales and other data suggest the
industry may be done with the worst declines in the U.S. While soda
pop volumes aren't poised for any dramatic rebound, the large
beverage companies could begin to see some sequential improvement
from last year in the region.
Some brand new marketing campaigns from giants PepsiCo Inc.
(PEP) and Coca-Cola Co. (KO) seem to be helping, as lower gasoline
prices are aiding soft drink sales in convenience stores.
"Things are not going to be as bad as they were in the fourth
quarter in 2008. Volumes will be better in the first quarter than
the fourth," says JPMorgan analyst John Faucher.
Coke and Pepsi are set to report quarterly earnings next week
and the companies' comments on North America will be closely
watched. Any better-than-expected volume numbers "will be perceived
very favorably," says Esther Kwon, an analyst at Standard &
Poor's.
To be sure, the two multinationals face a host of other
pressures, such as the fluctuations in foreign currencies that have
pressured the companies' revenue in recent quarters. Also, emerging
markets aren't growing at the breakneck speed of previous years.
Higher priced drinks such as ready-to-drink teas are likely to
continue to be hurt by consumers trading down. That said, fewer
pressures in the key U.S. market would be a big positive for two
beverage makers. (Unlike Coke, Pepsi also sells snacks in the U.S.
and around the world).
Volumes in the U.S. carbonated soft drink market fell 3% in
2008, and both Coca-Cola and PepsiCo lost market share, according
to trade publication Beverage Digest. But more recently, Dr Pepper
Snapple Group Inc. (DPS) - which sells both fizzy drinks and
ready-to-drink teas - offered a glimmer of hope by reporting
better-than-expected results. The company, which is smaller than
Coke or Pepsi, said fourth-quarter soda volume fell less than 1% as
consumers reached for cheaper drinks and shunned more expensive
ones such as Snapple.
The U.S. carbonated soft drink market has seen volume drops in
recent years as many consumers reached for non-carbonated drinks.
The recession sharpened those declines, pushing both Coke and Pepsi
to invest in reviving the soda category, which they both view as
key for the industry.
Coke launched a fresh marketing campaign it calls "Open
Happiness" and Pepsi has sought to create more buzz around its
brands through new packaging and branding for several products. The
two beverage giants have also been experimenting with smaller-size
bottles and packs at more attractive prices, such as Coke's efforts
to widen distribution of a new 16-ounce bottle priced at 99
cents.
"I'm seeing a lot of commercials from Coke and Pepsi that are
exciting and fun," says George Kalil, president of privately held
Kalil Bottling, in Tucson, Ariz., whose company sells a mix of
beverage brands including Coke's VitaminWater and Snapple. "It
helps the whole industry. They may get the biggest benefit, [but]
we all get a piece of the action." JP Morgan's Faucher, for
instance, has recently been bullish on Coke bottler Coca-Cola
Enterprises Inc. (CCE).
The stabilization in North America may not be sufficient to
completely override other pressures the industry faces. Both Coke
and Pepsi have been fairly guarded in their forecasts for the year,
acknowledging the challenges of the global slump in spending.
JPMorgan's Faucher says Wall Street's consensus earnings
expectations for Coke and Pepsi for this year may still be too high
given outside factors such as currency fluctuations. UBS says
volumes could be weak for Coke in Latin America and Russia.
Lower commodity costs will be a positive, but S&P's Kwon
expects most of those benefits to show up mainly in the second half
of the year.
-By Anjali Cordeiro; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2408;
anjali.cordeiro@dowjones.com