(CJ:TSX) Cardinal Energy Ltd. ("Cardinal" or the "Company") is
pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has approved a base
operating budget for 2019 that will focus on a sustainable
dividend, long-term operating cost reduction initiatives, debt
repayment and maintaining our production volumes at 2018 levels.
Highlights of 2019 Budget
- Operating cost reduction
initiatives targeting an 8% reduction in operating costs within
2019;
- Forecasting debt repayment of 10%
to 15% of total debt by year-end;
- Low corporate decline rate allows
for a conservative capital program to maintain production levels
which are currently curtailed by the Alberta Government; and
- As oil prices stabilize, dividend
level to be re-evaluated in April 2019.
As the Company's ability to increase production
is limited by the Government of Alberta's oil production
curtailment initiative, Cardinal's 2019 capital budget focuses on
operating cost reduction projects and proactively reducing our
environmental impact to ensure long-term sustainable development of
our properties. In addition, with production growth limited during
2019, the budget forecasts a 10% to 15% reduction in total debt by
the end of 2019. Pursuant to the Company's normal course issuer bid
announced in December 2018, Cardinal confirms that in 2019, it has
purchased and cancelled the maximum allowable of 10% of the
outstanding balance of debentures, below par redemption value,
saving approximately $0.3 million of future interest and redemption
costs.
2019 Budget
Cardinal's 2019 base budget is expected to
produce adjusted funds flow of approximately $90 to $100 million,
assuming a royalty rate of 17%, a West Texas Intermediate ("WTI")
oil price of US$55/bbl, US/CAD exchange rate of 0.76 and a
$1.47/mcf AECO natural gas price. With the Company's operating cost
reduction initiatives, Cardinal is forecasting to reduce operating
costs per boe throughout 2019 by approximately 8% comparing first
quarter to fourth quarter 2019 estimated operating expenses.
Cardinal's capital program is structured to take
advantage of our top tier low decline rate and contemplates
drilling eight wells to sustain our current level of mandated
curtailed oil production and fulfill previous drilling commitments
on our lands. Approximately 20% of our capital budget is allocated
to long-term operating costs reduction initiatives which include
reducing our electricity and facility costs. The remainder of our
$47 million capital budget is directed to well optimization,
drilling, facility upgrades and continuing the expansion of
enhanced oil recovery projects at Midale.
Our base capital program includes the drilling
of six (6.0 net) oil wells in the Company's Bantry, Alberta area to
take advantage of a land earning farm-in opportunity. Cardinal also
expects to drill two (1.5 net) wells in our Midale, Saskatchewan
area where provincially mandated production curtailments are not in
place.
The base capital program results in adjusted
funds flow net of development capital expenditures of approximately
$43 to $53 million to fund dividend payments and for debt
repayment. Cardinal's total payout ratio, which is represented by
the capital program plus dividend payments divided by adjusted
funds flow is expected to be 65%. As production growth is expected
to be limited by the Alberta oil curtailment program, production is
forecasted to average 20,400 to 20,800 boe/d for 2019.
|
|
|
2019 Budget Assumptions |
|
|
|
|
|
US$
WTI |
|
$55 |
US/CAD Exchange Rate |
|
0.76 |
US$
WTI-WCS Basis Differential |
|
$15.50 |
Operating costs |
|
$20.75 - $21.25 |
G&A |
|
$2.25
- $2.50 |
|
|
|
Risk Management
During the first quarter of 2019, with
significantly narrower Canadian oil price differentials as compared
with late 2018, in order to protect the capital program and the
dividend, Cardinal has been opportunistic with its hedging
activity. For the remainder of 2019, we have hedged approximately
73% of forecasted medium oil production including 3,225 bbl/d of
Western Canadian Select ("WCS") hedged at an average price of
CAD$52 and WCS basis differential fixed on 3,500 bbl/d at an
average differential price of US$16.94/bbl which is approximately
US$27/bbl better than the average differential experienced in
December 2018. Cardinal has also protected the downside of oil
price fluctuations on approximately 40% of its light oil by hedging
the WTI on production of 3,600 bbl/d hedged at an average floor
price over CAD$70/bbl. The Company has also retained most of the
upside on WTI pricing as 62% of our WTI hedges are collared with a
ceiling average of approximately CAD$85/bbl and 38% of the light
oil hedges do not have a ceiling on the WTI price. Cardinal also
has fixed the price of 16% of its natural gas at an average AECO
price of $1.55/gj.
ARO
Cardinal has budgeted $5.0 million for
abandonments and reclamations in 2019 and has opted into an area
based program approach implemented by the Alberta Government and
plans to focus its 2019 abandonment and reclamation activities in
our Southern Alberta areas.
We are committed to the environmentally
responsible development of our resources and will continue to
manage our abandonment and reclamation obligations with a view of
long-term sustainability.
|
|
|
Sensitivities |
|
|
|
|
|
Input |
|
Effect on adjusted funds flow |
US$1
change in WTI |
|
$4.0
million |
CAD$1
MSW basis |
|
$1.2
million |
CAD$1
WCS basis |
|
$0.9
million |
FX
$0.01 |
|
$2.6
million |
|
|
|
Outlook
With Canadian oil differentials narrowing
significantly in the first quarter of 2019, Cardinal is cautiously
optimistic about the coming year. Although not a long-term
solution, the Alberta oil curtailment program has provided a much
needed boost to Canadian oil prices in 2019. There are positive
signs within the industry with recent approvals and ongoing
projects which should help the Canadian oil and gas industry with
additional safe and reliable egress options. Cardinal has taken a
conservative approach with our 2019 budget and has locked in a
portion of our adjusted funds flow with our risk management program
which is intended to protect our capital program and dividend
payment. Our conservative budget gives us the flexibility to
increase our capital program, pay down additional debt and/or
increase our dividend if commodity prices increase.
At our budgeted simple dividend payout ratio of
approximately 15%, we are now in a position where the dividend
level allows us to strengthen the Company with projects that
improve both the short-term cash flows as well as improving the
long-term viability of the business.
As stated in our December 6, 2018 press release,
the Company's Board of Directors will review the dividend level in
April, 2019 to determine the appropriate level for the remainder of
the year.
We are excited about our operating cost
reduction initiatives which we expect will reduce our long-term
operating cost levels to ensure sustainability through a
fluctuating commodity price environment. Although growth will be
muted by the curtailment program, our 2019 budget gives us the
ability to solidify our balance sheet and set the Company up for
future growth.
We would like to thank our employees and Board
of Directors for their ongoing contributions to the success of
Cardinal and our shareholders for their support through challenging
times.
Cardinal's annual reserve results will be
released on March 5, 2019 with the financial and operating results
to be released on March 19, 2019.
Note Regarding Forward Looking
Statements
This press release contains forward-looking
statements and forward-looking information (collectively
"forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable
securities laws relating to Cardinal's plans and other aspects of
Cardinal's anticipated future operations, management focus,
objectives, strategies, financial, operating and production
results. Forward-looking information typically uses words such as
"anticipate", "believe", "project", "expect", "goal", "plan",
"intend", "may", "would", "could" or "will" or similar words
suggesting future outcomes, events or performance. The
forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak
only as of the date thereof and are expressly qualified by this
cautionary statement.
Specifically, this press release contains
forward-looking statements relating to our dividend policy, hedging
plans, total payout ratio, capital expenditure plans including the
2019 capital expenditure budget and the allocation thereof and
results therefrom, future operating costs, future debt repayment
and total debt, expected development capital, future average
production volumes, adjusted funds flow, adjusted funds flow net of
development capital expenditures, total payout ratio, development
capital required to maintain production, free cash flow, future
drilling, completion and optimization plans and results,
abandonment and reclamation obligations and plans, the matters set
forth under "Outlook", commodity prices and differentials,
anticipated dividend re-investment plan and stock dividend
participation, Cardinal's asset base and future prospects for
development and growth therefrom.
Forward-looking statements regarding Cardinal
are based on certain key expectations and assumptions of Cardinal
concerning anticipated financial performance, business prospects,
strategies, regulatory developments, including production
curtailments, current and future commodity prices and exchange
rates, applicable royalty rates, tax laws, future well production
rates and reserve volumes, future operating costs, the performance
of existing and future wells, the success of its exploration and
development activities, the sufficiency and timing of budgeted
capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities, the
availability and cost of labor and services, the impact of
increasing competition, conditions in general economic and
financial markets, availability of drilling and related equipment,
effects of regulation by governmental agencies, the ability to
obtain financing on acceptable terms which are subject to change
based on commodity prices, market conditions, drilling success and
potential timing delays.
These forward-looking statements are subject to
numerous risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond
Cardinal's control. Such risks and uncertainties include, without
limitation: the impact of general economic conditions; volatility
in market prices for crude oil and natural gas; industry
conditions; currency fluctuations; imprecision of reserve
estimates; liabilities inherent in crude oil and natural gas
operations; environmental risks; incorrect assessments of the value
of acquisitions including the Acquisition and exploration and
development programs; competition from other producers; the lack of
availability of qualified personnel, drilling rigs or other
services; changes in income tax laws or changes in royalty rates
and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry;
hazards such as fire, explosion, blowouts, and spills, each of
which could result in substantial damage to wells, production
facilities, other property and the environment or in personal
injury; and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and
external sources.
Management has included the forward-looking
statements above and a summary of assumptions and risks related to
forward-looking statements provided in this press release in order
to provide readers with a more complete perspective on Cardinal's
future operations and such information may not be appropriate for
other purposes. Cardinal's actual results, performance or
achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or
implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no
assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the
forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of
them do so, what benefits that Cardinal will derive there from.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not
exhaustive. These forward-looking statements are made as of the
date of this press release and Cardinal disclaims any intent or
obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events or results or
otherwise, other than as required by applicable securities
laws.
This press release contains future-oriented
financial information and financial outlook information
(collectively, "FOFI") about our prospective results of operations,
cash flows, payout ratios and components thereof, all of which are
subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and
qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. FOFI contained
in this press release were made as of the date hereof and is
provided for the purpose of describing our anticipated future
business operations. We disclaim any intention or obligation to
update or revise any FOFI contained in this press release, whether
as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless
required pursuant to applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the
FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for
purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
Advisory Regarding Oil and Gas
Information
Where applicable, oil equivalent amounts have
been calculated using a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet
of natural gas to one barrel of oil. Boes may be misleading,
particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six
thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil is based on
an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the
burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead. Utilizing a conversion ratio at 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl may be
misleading as an indication of value.
Non-GAAP measures
This press release contains the terms
"development capital expenditures", "adjusted funds flow",
"adjusted funds flow per share", "total payout ratio", "net bank
debt" and "net bank debt to adjusted funds flow" which do not have
a standardized meaning prescribed by International Financial
Reporting Standards ("IFRS" or, alternatively, "GAAP") and
therefore may not be comparable with the calculation of similar
measures by other companies. Cardinal uses adjusted funds flow,
free cash flow and total payout ratio to analyze operating
performance. Cardinal feels these benchmarks are key measures of
profitability and overall sustainability for the Company. Adjusted
funds flow is not intended to represent operating profits nor
should it be viewed as an alternative to cash flow provided by
operating activities, net earnings or other measures of performance
calculated in accordance with GAAP. Adjusted funds flow is
calculated as cash flow from operating activities adjusted for
changes in non-cash working capital and decommissioning
expenditures. "Development capital expenditures" represent
expenditures on property, plant and equipment (excluding corporate
and other assets and acquisitions) to maintain and grow the
Company's base production. "Total payout ratio" represents the
ratio of the sum of dividends declared plus development capital
expenditures divided by adjusted funds flow. Total payout ratio is
a key measure to assess our ability to finance operating
activities, capital expenditures and dividends.
About Cardinal Energy Ltd.
Cardinal is a junior Canadian oil focused
company built to provide investors with a stable platform for
dividend income and growth. Cardinal's operations are focused in
low decline light and medium quality oil in Alberta and
Saskatchewan.
For further information:M.
Scott Ratushny, CEO or Shawn Van Spankeren, CFO or Laurence Broos,
VP FinanceEmail: info@cardinalenergy.caPhone: (403)
234-8681Website: www.cardinalenergy.caAddress: 600, 400 – 3rd
Avenue SW, Calgary, AB, T2P 4H2
Cardinal Energy (TSX:CJ)
Historical Stock Chart
Von Okt 2024 bis Nov 2024
Cardinal Energy (TSX:CJ)
Historical Stock Chart
Von Nov 2023 bis Nov 2024