TIDM68FF

RNS Number : 6372P

HBOS PLC

06 October 2011

Halifax House Price Index

 
 National Index   September 2011 
 
 
                     All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100) 
   Annual Change     Quarterly Change   Monthly Change 
       -2.3%               0.1%              -0.5% 
           Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) GBP161,132

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"House prices in Quarter 3 (July to September) were slightly higher than in Quarter 2 (April to June). The 0.1% increase between the two quarters was the first quarterly rise since Quarter 1 2010.

"The more volatile monthly figures showed a 0.5% decline in prices in September. This continued the mixed monthly picture experienced so far this year with four rises, four falls and one no change since January. This mixed pattern is consistent with a market where prices are lacking genuine direction.

"Greater uncertainty about economic and personal financial circumstances, together with pressure on householders' finances from weak earnings growth, higher inflation and increases in taxes, are likely to be constraining housing demand. Despite these pressures, low interest rates and a rise in employment over the past year, have been supporting the market, resulting in broad stability in both prices and activity. We expect little change over the remainder of this year."

Key facts

-- House prices in 2011 Quarter 3 (July to September) were 0.1% higher than in the previous quarter. This was the first quarterly rise since 2010 Quarter 1 (0.6%).

-- On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 0.5% in September. There has been a very mixed pattern of monthly price movements so far this year with four monthly rises, four falls and one month when prices were unchanged.

-- The average UK house price in September was 1.0% lower than in December 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, at GBP161,132.

-- On an annual basis, prices in September were 2.3% lower as measured by the average for the three months to September against the same period a year earlier. The annual rate is slightly lower than in August (-2.6%) and continues the improvement seen since May when prices were 4.2% lower annually.

-- Some signs of a slight pick-up in housing activity. Property sales have been broadly unchanged during 2011 to date, remaining within a narrow range around 70,000 per month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to HMRC figures. The industry-wide number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase - a leading indicator of completed house sales - increased for the fourth consecutive month in August, to 52,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest Bank of England figures. This was the highest since December 2009.

-- Higher employment and low mortgage rates are likely to have been important factors supporting the market. The number of people in employment in the three months to July was 24,000 higher than a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the ONS. Typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48% of average disposable earnings in mid 2007 to 26% in 2011 Quarter 3. This is significantly below the average of 37% over the past 25 years and is at its lowest since 1997.

The Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue/withdraw this, or any other report. Any use of this report for an individual's own or third party commercial purposes is done entirely at the risk of the person making such use and solely the responsibility of the person or persons making such reliance. (c) Bank of Scotland plc all rights reserved 2011.

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END

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