Auto demand levels expected to continue tapering from 2Q
results
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Nov. 27,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- On an unadjusted volume level,
November US light vehicle sales are expected to advance mildly from
the strike impacted levels of October but remain absent of any
momentum. S&P Global Mobility projects sales volume of 1.23
million units for November, which would translate to a seasonally
adjusted sales rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million units for the month,
even with the month-prior level.
S&P Global Mobility projects
sales of 1.23M units for November,
which would translate to a SAAR of 15.5M units
"While the end of the UAW strikes provides some potential
relief to those automakers impacted, the ever-present affordability
concerns remain prevalent for the foreseeable future," reports
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility. "Over the course of the next few months,
it's difficult to imagine auto sales getting a jump start from the
current pace of demand, with the upshot being a bounce in early
2024 production creating a progression for inventory and incentive
levels to develop come spring of 2024."
New vehicle retail advertised inventory listings peaked in
mid-October just shy of 2.5 million units and have seen a slight
decrease since then – from an end-of-October level of 2.35 million
units to about 2.3 million in mid-November.
"As of mid-October, there was still more advertised dealer
inventory of outgoing 2023 model year models than incoming 2024s,
and the 2024 model year inventory was growing at a faster rate than
the 2023 model year sell-down," said Matt
Trommer, associate director of Market Reporting at S&P
Global Mobility. "But as of mid-November, that tide seems to have
reversed; there are now fewer 2023s (about 955,000 units) than
2024s (about 1.34 million)."
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Nov 23
(Est)
|
Oct
23
|
Nov
22
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,234,100
|
1,200,286
|
1,135,484
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.5
|
15.5
|
14.3
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.3
|
12.4
|
11.2
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. October 2023 BEV share is expected to reach 7.8%,
similar to the month prior reading and pushing year-to-date BEV
sales growth to an estimated 47%. BEV programs previously expected
for stronger launches in Q4 2023 have been delayed to 2024,
creating opportunity for BEV share advances beginning early next
year.
Electric vehicle retail advertised inventories (not including
Tesla) also peaked in mid-October at 135,000 units and have
declined slightly since then. Most BEV nameplates have reached an
inventory plateau and flattened off.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility