QNTUSD Quant

The Bitcoin price has surged past the $71,000 mark today. Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has rallied by more than 8.5%, climbing from $65,600 to as high as $71,118 on October 29. In the last 24 hours alone, the BTC price has increased by 3.8%. This upward momentum can be attributed to four key factors: #1 Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows The surge in Bitcoin’s price is closely linked to substantial inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Yesterday witnessed massive ETF flows totaling $479.4 million. BlackRock led the inflows with $315.2 million, followed by Fidelity at $44.1 million, Ark with $59.8 million, and Bitwise at $38.7 million. These significant investments coincided with Bitcoin’s price movement from $68,000 to over $71,000. Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin ETF inflows and CME Open Interest. He noted “We have a divergence between Bitcoin ETF Inflows and CME Open Interest. ETF Inflows are ticking meaningfully higher, CME Open Interest is up, but not as much GBTC outflows are also minimal. We’re seeing true directional ETF inflows, and less so cash and carry trades.” The divergence suggests that investors are favoring direct exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs rather than engaging in cash and carry trades involving futures contracts. The carry trade strategy in the context of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures involves buying the ETF (tracking the spot price of Bitcoin) and simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the CME. This approach aims to capitalize on price differences when futures trade at a premium to the spot price (contango). The notable shift toward ETFs indicates a bullish sentiment among investors, anticipating further price appreciation. #2 The “Trump Trade” Political developments are also influencing Bitcoin’s recent rally. Singapore-based QCP Capital commented on the impact of former President Donald Trump’s interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, which has gained over 32 million views and driven his Polymarket odds above 66%. Despite “crypto” being touted as the “Trump Trade,” Bitcoin’s correlation with Trump’s potential election victory seems to fuel the Bitcoin price rally. QCP Capital also noted that Bitcoin is up only 8% this “Uptober,” compared to an average of 21% in previous Octobers. They stated, “If spot holds at these levels, this October would mark Bitcoin’s fourth-worst performance in the past decade.” With total BTC perpetual futures open interest across exchanges standing at $27 billion—approaching this year’s peak—a breakout above $70,000 could trigger new all-time highs, especially with more leveraged longs joining in. #3 Shorts Squeeze Amplifies Price Surge Market data indicates a significant shorts squeeze contributing to Bitcoin’s price spike. According to Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, 65,622 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations across the entire crypto market amounting to $228.51 million. Of this, $169.47 million were short liquidations. Specifically for Bitcoin, $83.61 million in shorts were liquidated. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Binance’s BTCUSDT pair, valued at $18 million. The substantial liquidation of short positions suggests that many traders were betting on a price decline and were forced to close their positions as the market moved against them. This mass unwinding of shorts can accelerate upward price movements as traders buy back into the market to cover their positions. #4 Whales Increase Buying Activity Large-scale investors, often referred to as “whales,” are playing a pivotal role in the current rally. CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet observed that Bitcoin’s rally continues, led by activity on the Binance exchange. He pointed out that Binance whales began significant involvement in the market two weeks ago during Asian trading hours, and recent declines in the Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) alongside price increases are “a clear sign of Binance whales’ intervention. Mignolet emphasized that this should not be interpreted as a decline in US demand, but an even stronger buying pressure from Binance. Over the past two weeks, demand for US Bitcoin spot ETFs has surged, with a net inflow of approximately 47,000 Bitcoin. Since most ETF products use Coinbase, movements in CPG data are closely tied to ETF demand. He concluded, “The current Bitcoin price is being driven by Binance whales, with sustained inflows of US capital.” At press time, BTC traded at $71,340. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com