BRLA Blackrock Latin American Investment Trust Plc

The information contained in this release was correct as at 30 April 2024.  Information on the Company’s up to date net asset values can be found on the London Stock Exchange Website at

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-home.html. 

BLACKROCK LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC (LEI - UK9OG5Q0CYUDFGRX4151)

All information is at 30 April 2024 and unaudited.
 

Performance at month end with net income reinvested
 

^cum income

^^The Company’s performance benchmark (the MSCI EM Latin America Index) may be calculated on either a Gross or a Net return basis. Net return (NR) indices calculate the reinvestment of dividends net of withholding taxes using the tax rates applicable to non-resident institutional investors, and hence give a lower total return than indices where calculations are on a Gross basis (which assumes that no withholding tax is suffered). As the Company is subject to withholding tax rates for the majority of countries in which it invests, the NR basis is felt to be the most accurate, appropriate, consistent and fair comparison for the Company.

Sources: BlackRock, Standard & Poor’s Micropal

At month end

#Total assets include current year revenue.

##The yield of 6.3% is calculated based on total dividends declared in the last 12 months as at the date of this announcement as set out below (totalling 30.00 cents per share) and using a share price of 475.82.56 US cents per share (equivalent to the sterling price of 380.00 pence per share translated in to US cents at the rate prevailing at 30 April 2024 of $1.252 dollars to £1.00).

2023 Q2 Interim dividend of 7.54 cents per share (Paid on 11 August 2023)

2023 Q3 Interim dividend of 7.02 cents per share (Paid on 09 November 2023)

2023 Q4 Interim dividend of 8.05 cents per share (Paid on 09 February 2024)

2024 Q1 Interim dividend of 7.39 cents per share (To be paid on 16 May 2024)

*The discount is calculated using the cum income NAV (expressed in sterling terms).

**Net cash/net gearing is calculated using debt at par, less cash and cash equivalents and fixed interest investments as a percentage of net assets.

*** The Company’s ongoing charges are calculated as a percentage of average daily net assets and using the management fee and all other operating expenses excluding finance costs, direct transaction costs, custody transaction charges, VAT recovered, taxation and certain non-recurring items for the year ended 31 December 2023.

^Total assets for the purposes of these calculations exclude bank overdrafts, and the net current assets figure shown in the table above therefore excludes bank overdrafts equivalent to 6.7% of the Company’s net asset value.

*excluding net current assets & fixed interest

Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht and Christoph Brinkmann, representing the Investment Manager noted;

The Company’s NAV fell by -4.4% in April, underperforming the benchmark, MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index, which returned -2.6% on a net basis over the same period. All performance figures are in sterling terms with dividends reinvested.1

Emerging markets (+0.4%) significantly outperformed developed markets in April, which ended the month down -3.9%. Latin America (-3.5%) lagged the rest of Emerging Markets on the back of Fed (Federal Reserve) re-pricing, with Colombia (-4.4%) and Brazil (-4.1%) falling the most. Argentina was once again the strongest performer (+9.8%), followed by Peru (3.8%).

At the portfolio level, our exposure to precious metals stocks in both Mexico and Ecuador have been the key positive contributors to performance. On the other hand, stock selection in the Brazilian Consumer Discretionary space hurt relative returns during the period. Having no exposure to Peru also hurt performance over the month.

From a security lens, Mexican silver miner, Mag Silver, was the largest contributor, for the second month in a row. In addition to strong 1Q24 production numbers, the company continues to benefit from the latest surge in silver prices. An overweight holding in Mexican airport operator, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAPB), also helped returns on the back of decent Q124 results. IRB, the Brazilian reinsurance company, was another contributor to performance. While the company's reported headline numbers were a slight miss, they delivered good cost performance over the first quarter. Not owning Brazilian conglomerate, Itaúsa, also helped returns, as the stock fell alongside the Brazilian market.

On the flipside, an overweight position in Brazilian footwear retailer, Arezzo, weighed on performance. While topline numbers were a beat, underlying sales volumes declined. EZ Tec, a Brazilian homebuilder, also hurt relative returns. This remains a high conviction position for us as the company is net cash and trades on a cheap PE (price to earnings) multiple. An underweight exposure to Petrobras, the Brazilian oil and gas company, was another detractor during the month. The stock rose following news that the Board had reinstated 50% of an extraordinary dividend (which had previously been announced as cancelled).

We made some changes to the portfolio in April. In Brazil, we exited homebuilder, MRV and added to our position in investment management platform, XP Inc, as we see greater upside potential for the latter. We also topped up our holding in Brazilian stock exchange, B3 following recent underperformance. In Mexico, we initiated a holding in Kimberly-Clark de Mexico, a manufacturer of personal care products, as we see potential for positive earnings revisions. We also took some advantage of the strong performance of Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAPB) to take profits.

Brazil is the largest portfolio overweight as at the end of April 2024. Multi-Country appears as our second largest overweight, due to our holding in Lundin Gold, a Canadian based mining company with operations in Ecuador. On the other hand, we remain underweight in Peru due to its political and economic uncertainty. The second largest portfolio underweight is Mexico.

Outlook

We remain optimistic about the outlook for Latin America. Central banks have been proactive in increasing interest rates to help control inflation, which has fallen significantly across the region. As such we have started to see central banks beginning to lower interest rates, which should support both economic activity and asset prices. In addition, the whole region is benefitting from being relatively isolated from global geopolitical conflicts. We believe that this will lead to both an increase in foreign direct investment and an increase in allocation from investors across the region.  

Brazil is the showcase of this thesis - with the central bank cutting the policy rate considerably. We anticipate further reductions, particularly if the Federal Reserve ceases its own rate hikes. The government’s fiscal framework being more orthodox than market expectations has helped to reduce uncertainty regarding the fiscal outlook and was key for confidence. We expect further upside to the equity market in the next 12-18 months as local capital starts flowing into the market.  

We remain positive on the outlook for the Mexican economy as it is a key beneficiary of the friend-shoring of global supply chains. Mexico remains defensive as both fiscal and the current accounts are in order. While our view remains positive, we have taken profits after a strong relative performance, solely because we see even more upside in other Latin American markets such as Brazil. We also note that the Mexican economy will be relatively more sensitive to a potential slowdown in economic activity in the United States.

We continue to closely monitor the political and economic situation in Argentina, after libertarian Javier Milei unexpectedly won the presidential elections in November 2023. Milei is facing a very difficult situation, with inflation around 290% year-on-year, FX reserves depleted and multiple economic imbalances. To further gauge sentiment on the ground, we travelled to the country in January 2024. The trip further instilled our cautious view on the economic outlook for the country, and we see no fundamental reasons as to why we would want to buy this market now.

We acknowledge the strengths of the data in the United States, but we believe that, ultimately, the domestic economic outlook in the Latin American countries will be the key driver of local interest rates. We therefore maintain conviction in the positioning of the portfolio in rate-sensitive domestic stocks. In addition to this, after three months of very strong labor market data and higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States, we believe there is a high probability that both measures will soften going forward. This view is predicated on leading indicators such as hiring intentions and high-frequency pricing data. The recent U.S. data releases for jobless claims and non-farm payroll employment could indicate that the thesis regarding the labor market is starting to play out. If this view would prove to be correct, there should be less pressure from rising rates in the United States.

1Source: BlackRock, as of 30 April 2024.

17 May 2024

ENDS

Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.com/uk/brla on the internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV terminal).  Neither the contents of the Manager’s website nor the contents of any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager’s website (or any other website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.