Brazil Investors Should Stay Defensive Ahead Of Rate Cuts -Deutsche
31 August 2011 - 7:48PM
Dow Jones News
Though some Brazilian investors have already started buying
volatile shares that may benefit from lower interest rates,
Deutsche Bank (DB, DBK.XE) recommended Wednesday that investors
stick with defensive stocks.
Brazilian investors have begun buying interest-rate sensitive
stocks such as homebuilders and retailers, but Deutsche said it was
cautious about adding too many of those volatile companies.
Instead, the bank suggested buying high-dividend yielding stocks
such as phone companies or companies with interest-rate linked debt
such as industrials Iochpe Maxion (MYPK3.BR) and Weg (WEGE3.BR) or
railroad operator ALL America Latina Logistica (ALLL3.BR).
Banks may also be a good bet as lower interest rates diminish
concern about deteriorating asset quality, wrote Deutsche Bank
strategists Frederick Searby and Francisco Schumacher.
Brazil's central bank will meet after markets close Wednesday to
set the benchmark interest rate. Most economists expect the rate to
stay steady at 12.5% after five consecutive increases, and some say
there is already room for rate cuts later this year.
The Deutsche strategists said there is little concern about a
current credit bubble, thanks to a low ratio of credit and
mortgages to GDP as well as conservative reserve requirements that
can "cushion any credit deterioration." Nevertheless, the
strategists warned that rapid credit expansion in the country could
pose a risk should the global economy have a hard landing,
especially since many Brazilian loans are to first-time
borrowers.
"Many locals feel quite convinced that 2008 was a salutary
stress test that helped expunge market excesses," they wrote. "We
continue to argue that the supercycle in commodities is vulnerable
and that a hard landing in China would mean a deterioration in the
terms of trade, a correction in the strong currency, and a greater
hit to the economy than many expect."
-By Paulo Winterstein, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-11-3544-7073;
paulo.winterstein@dowjones.com