By Kate Gibson
U.S. stock investors have found reason to cheer in recent data
showing strength in home and car sales. But stock analysts caution
both markets drew short-lived boosts from government stimulus
programs, one of which ends Monday, the other at the end of
November.
Housing and car sales data "continue to be skewed by government
bailout efforts," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at
Hinsdale Associates.
"What makes the data more concerning for the long-term viability
of any recovery that we may be in the middle of is much of the
activity came from distressed sales, inventories of unsold homes
still rose, and home prices are still falling," said Nolte.
With the government's "cash for clunkers" program ending later
Monday, "we'll now get to see what the natural supply and demand
dynamic is in the auto industry," said Peter Boockvar, equity
strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. .
Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) slipped fractionally. The auto
maker's Corolla was the top-selling model under the incentive
program. Shares of Honda Motor Co. (HMC), which makes the Civic,
the second best-selling car in the program, tilted 0.3% higher,
while Ford Motor Co.'s (F) Focus ranked third. Shares of Ford fell
3.3%.
T.J. Marta, chief market strategist at Marta on the Markets,
says while the clunkers program boosted sales and production, the
gains came at least partly at the expense of future sales and
production, both of which Marta believes "will fall below even
recent rates" in several months.
"The program interrupted the much-needed reallocation, or
creative destruction, of excess capacity in the auto industry,"
said Marta.
And, the program prompted "lower, middle and middle class owners
of older vehicles to lever up on debt and depreciating assets at a
time when these people should be shoring up their balance sheets in
the face of rising unemployment," the analyst added.
"The other major program, the 'cash for shelter' plan providing
tax credits for home purchases, runs to Nov. 31 but there is
already talk of enlarging its size and making it available to all
home buyers, not just first time," said Boockvar.
On Monday, stocks pulled higher for a fifth day in the wake of a
report Friday that existing home sales climbed more quickly than
forecast. .
Nearing mid-day, energy, financials and materials paced sector
gains as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) stood at 9,568.61,
up 62.65 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) added 7.33
points, or 0.7%, to 1,033.46, while the Nasdaq Composite (RIXF)
rose 10.75 points, or 0.5%, to 2,031.65.
"The persistent rise in the stock market may be signaling an end
to the recession or investors may be whistling past the graveyard,"
said Nolte of the market's trend upward.