Property-Sector Profit Warning Highlights 'Brexit' Risk for U.K. -- Update
27 Juni 2016 - 6:24PM
Dow Jones News
By Art Patnaude and Olga Cotaga
LONDON--Shares in U.K. real-estate firms--from office landlords
to property brokers and home builders--were hammered Monday after
Britons last week voted to leave the European Union, a move
analysts warned could cause property values to drop.
Foxtons Group PLC, a prominent property broker focused in
London, warned that its 2016 earnings will be significantly lower
than last year, suggesting an impending slowdown in housing deals.
Foxtons shares fell as much as 24% in morning trading in London
before being temporarily suspended.
Suspensions occur when a shares fall more than 10% from their
closing price level on the previous day.
Shares in the biggest U.K. housebuilders were also temporarily
suspended after steep losses, with Persimmon PLC down 23%. Other
home builders, including Taylor Wimpey PLC, Barratt Developments
PLC and Berkeley Group Holdings PLC, took big hits.
Land Securities PLC and British Land PLC, the two biggest listed
U.K. landlords, also saw shares drop. Since the referendum results
were announced Friday morning, Land Securities lost 24% of its
value, while British Land shed 29%.
The sharp falls followed a broad expectation that U.K.
real-estate values could drop, caused by transactions drying up
amid uncertainty about how the U.K. will extricate itself from the
EU.
In the run-up to the referendum, uncertainty over a possible
Brexit vote had already hit the housing market throughout the U.K.
Earlier this month, property brokers were predicting prices would
fall this summer for the first time since 2012.
For housebuilders' earnings, a Brexit-inspired fall in consumer
confidence, or if banks become less willing to lend, could be "very
damaging," analysts at Swiss lender UBS Group AG said.
For landlords that own U.K. commercial real estate, values "now
look likely to decline moderately over the remainder of the year,"
according to U.K. asset manager Aviva PLC.
Part of this could be driven by exodus of companies to Europe,
led by financial services firms, which would have an outsize impact
on London office market, analysts said.
Jefferies analysts estimate the U.K. capital could lose 100,000
jobs to Europe.
Like with commercial property in London, the housing market has
a greater reliance on overseas buyers, making it especially
susceptible to weaker sentiment from foreign investors.
"Areas which are more reliant on EU buyers, such as South
Kensington and Angel, may well see a price correction," Robin
Paterson, chief executive of U.K. Sotheby's International Realty,
on Friday. He noted that prices in other areas could still perform
well.
Transaction levels of high-end homes in central London had
already been falling over the past year. Tax hikes, years of rising
prices and Brexit uncertainty helped keep buyers at bay. Foreign
investors from Asia and the Mideast were also contending with
concerns over slowing global economic growth, weak oil prices and
stock-market shocks.
Some analysts have noted that the sharp drop in the value of
sterling against other currencies in the last few days could
encourage bargain hunters from abroad. Pressure on the British
pound intensified Monday after the currency closed at its lowest
levels in more than 30 years on Friday.
"Buyers will expect a seriously good deal," said Roarie
Scarisbrick, partner at buying agent Property Vision.
Transactions are a cornerstone for commission-lead brokers like
Foxtons, which, like other brokers and analysts, had expected a
boost to activity in the London housing market if Britons voted to
remain in the EU.
"The upturn we were expecting during the second half of this
year is now unlikely to materialize," Foxtons said in a statement.
Challenging conditions "are now likely to continue for at least the
remainder of the year."
Write to Art Patnaude at art.patnaude@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 27, 2016 12:09 ET (16:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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