Buy Now, Crypto Bull Market Returns, Says Arthur Hayes
07 Juni 2024 - 10:00AM
NEWSBTC
In a new essay titled “Group of Fools,” Arthur Hayes, the outspoken
co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, casts a critical eye over
recent macroeconomic developments and their implications for the
crypto market. Hayes, known for his direct and often provocative
commentary, employs a blend of technical analysis, central banking
critique, and currency market insights to build a case for what he
believes is the return of a Bitcoin and crypto bull market. A
“Group Of Fools” He begins by emphasizing the significance of the
dollar-yen exchange rate as a macroeconomic barometer. According to
Hayes, this metric crucially influences global financial stability
and policy decisions. “The dollar-yen exchange rate is the most
important macroeconomic indicator,” he asserts. Hayes revisits his
earlier proposal for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to engage in
extensive dollar-for-yen swaps with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), a move
he argues would empower the Japanese Ministry of Finance to bolster
the yen through targeted interventions in the forex markets.
Despite the theoretical benefits of this strategy, Hayes notes with
a mix of irony and frustration that the G7 nations, which he refers
to as the “Group of Fools,” have opted for a different route.
Related Reading: GMX Soars 20% Amid Crypto Whale Frenzy, Is It Back
In ‘Turbo Mode’? The narrative then shifts to a critical
examination of the G7’s central banking strategies. Hayes points
out the stark discrepancies in interest rates among the major
economies, with Japan maintaining a near-zero rate while other
nations hover around 4-5%. He critiques the conventional wisdom
that supports rate cuts as a tool to manage inflation, which
universally targets a 2% rate among G7 countries, despite their
diverse economic conditions. “The G7 central banks—with the
exception of the BOJ—have all raised rates aggressively in response
to inflation spikes,” Hayes writes. However, he highlights
yesterday’s unexpected rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the
European Central Bank despite prevailing inflation trends,
suggesting a deeper, unstated economic strategy aimed at bolstering
the yen against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic tensions
with China. He describes this move as a cessation of what he terms
“rate hike Kabuki theatre,” a maneuver he believes is designed to
maintain the dominance of the Pax Americana-led global financial
system. Why The Bitcoin And Crypto Bull Run Returns It is in this
context that Hayes pivots to the implications for the crypto
market. Looking ahead, Hayes turns his gaze to the crypto markets,
suggesting that these recent shifts signal a fortuitous environment
for investment in digital assets. Hayes speculates that the
coordinated actions of central banks to adjust interest rates
downward, despite high inflation, are setting the stage for
increased liquidity in global markets, which traditionally benefits
riskier assets like Bitcoin and subsequently altcoins. Related
Reading: Fake Crypto Airdrop: Tether’s CEO Warns Of Ongoing Supply
Chain Email Exploit “The June central banking fireworks kicked off
this week by the BOC and ECB rate cuts will catapult crypto out of
the northern hemispheric summer doldrums. This was not my expected
base case. I thought the fireworks would start in August, right
around when the Fed hosts its Jackson Hole symposium,” Hayes noted.
He argues that these monetary policy shifts are likely to ignite a
bull market in Bitcoin and crypto, particularly as central banks
appear to be entering a cycle of rate easing. “We know how to play
this game. It’s the same game we have been playing since 2009 when
our Lord and Saviour Satoshi gave us the weapon to defeat the
TradFi devil. Go long Bitcoin and subsequently shitcoins.” Hayes
declares, referencing the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. As the
G7 meeting from June 13-15 looms, Hayes anticipates further
developments that could influence global financial markets. He
expects the communiqué from this gathering will likely address
currency and bond market manipulations explicitly, or at least
signal continued accommodative policies. Additionally, Hayes
forecasts that despite conventional caution against policy shifts
near major political events like the US presidential election,
unusual circumstances might prompt unexpected moves. Hayes
concludes his essay by reinforcing his bullish stance on Bitcoin
and crypto, driven by his analysis of G7 monetary policies and
their impact on global exchange rates and financial stability. His
call to action for the crypto community is to capitalize on these
developments, positioning themselves for what he predicts will be a
lucrative phase in the markets. “For my excess liquid crypto
synthetic-dollar cash, […] it is time to deploy it again on
conviction shitcoins. […] But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is
reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central
bankers,” Hayes concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $71,200.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Mina (COIN:MINAUSD)
Historical Stock Chart
Von Mai 2024 bis Jun 2024
Mina (COIN:MINAUSD)
Historical Stock Chart
Von Jun 2023 bis Jun 2024