Cardinal Energy Ltd. ("
Cardinal" or the
"
Company") (TSX:CJ) is pleased to present the
results of its independent reserve report effective December 31,
2020. One hundred percent of Cardinal's year-end 2020 reserves were
evaluated by independent reserves evaluator GLJ Ltd. ("GLJ") as at
December 31, 2020 (the "2020 Reserve Report"). The 2020 financial
information in this press release is unaudited and accordingly,
such financial information is subject to change based on the
results of the Company's year-end audit.
SUSTAINABILITY AND
OPERATIONS
The resilience, quality and sustainability of
our low decline asset base was demonstrated through an extremely
challenging operational and financial period in 2020. The impacts
on our business due to COVID-19 and the associated volatility in
oil prices were profound and forced rapid decisions to reduce long
term negative consequences. Cardinal’s focus was to preserve
financial liquidity, capture cost savings while keeping our
operations safe and maintaining the long term value of our assets.
The year started off in a bullish fashion with
WTI oil prices over US$60 per bbl and Cardinal kicking off a
multi-well drilling program. This successful program consisted of
six horizontal Glauconitic wells and one multi-leg Ellerslie
horizontal well in our Bantry and Duchess fields in southern
Alberta.
Then the world changed due to the COVID-19
pandemic. We spent the balance of 2020 in a survival mode cutting
our capital budget by over 50% and significantly reducing our well
reactivation program. The low decline nature of our assets
performed exceptionally well as workover and reactivation costs
were cut, salaries and wages were significantly reduced and capital
spending halted, yet our production base was held relatively
flat. We did shut down higher operating cost properties, some
of which are still shut in, and we will continue to review these
properties to come up with long term solutions to fix their cost
structure. Production volumes averaged 17,169 boe/d in the second
quarter of 2020 and as prices recovered, reached an average of
18,625 boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2020 without the benefit of
drilling new wells as existing production was optimized and
selective shut-in barrels were brought back on stream.
Throughout the second half of the year,
commodity prices stabilized however there were ongoing restrictions
and uncertainty when a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hit
most countries. WTI oil prices averaged US$42.66 per bbl in
the fourth quarter and closed at approximately $48.50 per bbl, an
increase of 74% over the average price experienced in the second
quarter of 2020. Oil prices through Q1 2021 have continued to
strengthen to pre COVID-19 levels with recent spot WTI prices
around US$60 per bbl further improving the long term outlook for
Cardinal and the industry.
RESERVE REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
All reserves information contained in this press
release is based on the 2020 Reserve Report.
- The Net Present
Value ("NPV"), discounted at 10% ("NPV10") is $600 million, $712
million for our Proved Developed Producing ("PDP") and Proved Plus
Probable Producing ("P+PDP") reserves respectively.
- Cardinal
continues to maintain a long producing reserve life index(1)
("RLI") of 9.5 years PDP and 12 years P+PDP based on fourth quarter
2020 production which reflects the low decline, low risk
predictable nature of our asset base.
- Cardinal's light
and medium crude oil reserves, natural gas and associated liquids
saw positive technical revisions of 6.3 Mmboe and 6.7 Mmboe in the
Total Proved ("TP") and Total Proved plus Probable ("TPP") reserves
category, respectively. The Midale CO2 enhanced recovery project
continues to exhibit improved performance.
- Cardinal
maintained a high percentage of reserves as producing with the
P+PDP reserves accounting for 82% of the Company's total
reserves.
- Based on the
2020 Reserve Report, the debt adjusted, NPV10 (2) of the Company's
PDP reserves was $2.91 per basic share.
- 90% of
Cardinal's TPP reserves are associated with oil and natural gas
liquids.
- Future
Development Capital ("FDC") was reduced by $51 million (19%) in the
TPP reserves category as the Company has limited drilling plans in
2021.
Notes: (1) RLI is calculated by
dividing the reserves by the annualized fourth quarter production
of 18,625 boe per day, consisting of 10,172 bbl/d of light and
medium crude oil, 4,977 bbl/d of heavy crude oil, 1,200 bbl/d of
natural gas liquids and 13.7 MMcf/d of conventional natural
gas.(2) PDP net asset value is based on the before
tax NPV10 of the PDP reserves less net debt of $247 million
(unaudited) divided by the Company's basic shares at December 31,
2020 of 121.3 million.
OIL AND GAS RESERVES
The 2020 Reserve Report encompasses 100% of
Cardinal's oil and gas properties and was prepared in accordance
with definitions, standards and procedures contained in the
Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook("COGEH") and National
Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas
Activities ("NI 51-101").
Reserves Detail
Our 2020 Reserve Report reflects the impact of a
materially lower commodity price forecast of the three consultant's
average (GLJ, McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. and
Sproule Associates Ltd.) used by GLJ. The forecast crude oil
reference prices are 25% lower in the first five years from the
2019 Reserve Report forecast. There were 2.9 million barrels
of TP and 2.3 million barrels of TPP heavy oil reserves removed due
to low oil pricing at year end. These revisions were offset by the
maintained low decline and improved performance in the Midale and
other light and medium crude oil properties with associated natural
gas and natural gas liquids.
The FDC was reduced by $47 million on a TP basis
and $51 million on a TPP basis year over year due to the removal of
some undeveloped locations primarily due to the change in
forecasted commodity prices and the Company's decision to have
minimal drilling activity in 2021. FDC was also reduced from
revisions to the CO2 purchase requirements and price. The FDC
includes costs to develop the undeveloped reserves as well as
maintenance capital and CO2 purchases.
In the 2020 Reserve Report, Cardinal has
included all abandonment, decommissioning and reclamation ("ADR")
costs for active and inactive wells, pipelines and facilities. The
ADR costs for the active assets are considered in the PDP reserves
category. Full inclusion of all ADR costs is recommended by COGEH.
Cardinal's full inclusion of costs exceeds the NI 51-101 minimum
requirement of ADR for active assets only. At year-end 2020, the
2020 Reserve Report included TPP ADR costs discounted at 10% of
$79.8 million.
Consistent with prior years and in accordance
with COGEH recommendations, Cardinal has included all operating
costs, for active and inactive assets. The Company also includes
the consideration of future maintenance costs which is included as
part of the operating costs or as FDC.
Summary of Oil and Gas Reserves
(1)
The following tables summarize certain
information contained in the 2020 Reserve Report. Reserves included
below are the Company's estimated gross reserves as at December 31,
2020, as evaluated in the 2020 Reserve Report.
Reserves Category |
Light andMedium Oil(Mbbl) |
Heavy Oil(Mbbl) |
Natural GasLiquids(Mbbl) |
ConventionalNatural
Gas(2)(MMcf) |
TotalBOE(Mboe) |
Proved Developed Producing |
36,186 |
18,934 |
2,984 |
37,531 |
64,359 |
Proved Developed Non-Producing |
1,371 |
1,011 |
179 |
6,901 |
3,711 |
Proved Undeveloped |
4,512 |
1,845 |
226 |
2,531 |
7,005 |
Total Proved |
42,069 |
21,790 |
3,389 |
46,963 |
75,074 |
Probable |
14,180 |
6,351 |
1,076 |
15,457 |
24,184 |
Total Proved Plus Probable |
56,249 |
28,141 |
4,465 |
62,420 |
99,258 |
Notes: (1) Total values may not
add due to rounding.(2) Includes non-associated
gas, associated gas and solution gas. (3) In addition to the
gross reserves indicated in the above table, the Company has 162
Mboe TPP royalty interest reserves comprised of 122 Mbbl light and
medium crude oil and 238 MMcf of conventional natural
gas.Summary of Net Present Values of Future Net Revenue
(Before Tax)(Based on forecast price and costs)
As at December 31, 2020
(1)(2)(3)
|
Discounted at: |
Reserves Category |
0.0%(M$) |
5.0%(M$) |
10.0%(M$) |
15.0%(M$) |
20.0%(M$) |
Proved Developed Producing |
950,174 |
770,949 |
600,164 |
488,401 |
412,823 |
Proved Developed Non-Producing(4) |
(129,617) |
(44,145) |
(21,819) |
(13,519) |
(9,735) |
Proved Undeveloped |
142,042 |
78,913 |
49,693 |
32,440 |
21,164 |
Total Proved |
962,599 |
805,717 |
628,037 |
507,322 |
424,252 |
Probable |
692,446 |
312,338 |
183,298 |
123,502 |
90,055 |
Total Proved Plus Probable |
1,655,045 |
1,118,055 |
811,335 |
630,824 |
514,306 |
Notes:(1) Total values may not
add due to rounding.(2) Based on three
consultant's average, as defined below, December 31, 2020 forecast
prices and costs. See below for "Price
Forecast".(3) Future net revenue has been reduced
for future abandonment costs and estimated capital for future
development associated with the reserves. (4) The
Proved Developed Non-Producing NPV includes the consideration of
the inactive ADR costs of the Company. Excluding these costs the
NPV10 of these reserves would be $32.9 million.
Reconciliations of Changes in
Reserves
The following table sets out a reconciliation of
the changes in the Corporation's reserves as at December 31, 2020
against such reserves at December 31, 2019 based on forecast prices
and cost assumptions in effect at the applicable reserve evaluation
date:
|
Total Proved |
|
Light andMediumCrude
Oil(Mbbl) |
HeavyCrude Oil(Mbbl) |
Conventional Natural
Gas(MMcf) |
NaturalGasLiquids(Mbbl) |
MBOE(Mboe) |
December 31, 2019 |
43,962 |
26,864 |
46,704 |
3,276 |
81,886 |
Technical Revisions (1) |
4,792 |
(772) |
5,629 |
616 |
5,575 |
Improved Recovery |
(7) |
- |
1 |
(1) |
(8) |
Extensions and Infill Drilling |
628 |
346 |
3,098 |
25 |
1,515 |
Dispositions (2) |
(113) |
- |
(7) |
(2) |
(116) |
Economic Factors (1)(3) |
(3,387) |
(2,882) |
(3,452) |
(211) |
(7,055) |
Production |
(3,805) |
(1,766) |
(5,009) |
(315) |
(6,722) |
December 31, 2020 |
42,069 |
21,790 |
46,963 |
3,389 |
75,074 |
|
Total Proved Plus Probable |
|
Light andMediumCrude
Oil(Mbbl) |
Heavy Crude Oil(Mbbl) |
Conventional Natural
Gas(MMcf) |
NaturalGasLiquids(Mbbl) |
MBOE(Mboe) |
December 31, 2019 |
58,279 |
34,887 |
63,016 |
4,355 |
108,024 |
Technical Revisions (1) |
5,199 |
(2,693) |
5,174 |
673 |
4,040 |
Improved Recovery |
(15) |
- |
(10) |
(1) |
(17) |
Extensions and Infill Drilling |
722 |
- |
3,555 |
28 |
1,342 |
Dispositions (2) |
(143) |
- |
(9) |
(2) |
(147) |
Economic Factors (1)(3) |
(3,987) |
(2,286) |
(4,297) |
(273) |
(7,262) |
Production |
(3,805) |
(1,766) |
(5,009) |
(315) |
(6,722) |
December 31, 2020 |
56,249 |
28,141 |
62,420 |
4,465 |
99,258 |
Notes:
(1) Heavy oil reserves were revised downward due
to truncation or uneconomic with this oil price forecast. Other
positive or negative revisions are due to variations in performance
versus previous forecasts.(2) There were no reserve acquisitions in
2020.(3) Economic factors have been calculated as the difference in
reserves using the 2020 Reserve Report price forecast with the 2019
Reserve Report reserve forecasts. There is no consideration of
changes in operating costs or price offset changes that occurred in
2020.
Price Forecast
The following table summarizes Consultant's
average (an arithmetic average of the price forecasts of GLJ,
McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. and Sproule Associates
Ltd.) commodity price forecast and foreign exchange rate
assumptions as at December 31, 2020, as applied in the 2020 Reserve
Report, for the next five years.
Consultants Average Price
Forecast(1) |
|
ExchangeRate |
WTI @Cushing |
CanadianLight Sweet40° API |
WesternCanada Select20.5° API |
Mediumat Cromer29° API |
Natural gasAECO – Cspot |
Year |
($US/$C) |
($US/bbl) |
($C/bbl) |
$C/bbl) |
($C/bbl) |
($C/MMbtu) |
2021 |
0.768 |
47.17 |
55.76 |
44.63 |
53.89 |
2.78 |
2022 |
0.765 |
50.17 |
59.89 |
48.18 |
57.58 |
2.70 |
2023 |
0.763 |
53.17 |
63.48 |
52.10 |
61.05 |
2.61 |
2024 |
0.763 |
54.97 |
65.76 |
54.10 |
63.25 |
2.65 |
2025 |
0.763 |
56.07 |
67.13 |
55.19 |
64.57 |
2.70 |
Note:(1) Inflation is accounted
for at 0% for 2021, 1.3% for 2022, and 2% thereafter.Future
Development Costs
FDC reflects the best estimate of the capital
cost required to produce the reserves. The FDC
associated with the TPP reserves at yearend 2020 is $219 million
undiscounted ($152 million discounted at 10%).
|
millions $ |
PDP |
Total Proved |
Total Provedplus Probable |
|
Total FDC, Undiscounted |
61.4 |
172.6 |
219.3 |
|
Total FDC, Discounted at 10% |
34.2 |
119.9 |
151.8 |
FDC included at year-end 2020 for CO2 purchases,
maintenance and facility capital in PDP, TP and TPP were $61
million, $69 million and $80 million, respectively. This represents
37% of Cardinal's TPP FDC of $219 million. There are 76 net future
locations included in the 2020 Reserve Report (including future CO2
injectors).
Note Regarding Forward Looking
Statements
This press release contains forward-looking
statements and forward-looking information (collectively
"forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable
securities laws relating to the Cardinal's plans and other aspects
of Cardinal's anticipated future operations, management focus,
objectives, strategies, financial, operating and production
results. Forward-looking information typically uses words such as
"anticipate", "believe", "project", "expect", "goal", "plan",
"intend", " may", "would", "could" or "will" or similar words
suggesting future outcomes, events or performance. The
forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak
only as of the date thereof and are expressly qualified by this
cautionary statement.Specifically, this press release contains
forward-looking statements relating to: our business strategies,
plans and objectives, future drilling plans and locations, plans to
improve the cost structure of some of our properties; plans to
maintain our production and improve our future Environment, Social
and Governance ("ESG") plans, Cardinal's asset base and its future
potential and opportunities. In addition, information and
statements relating to reserves are deemed to be forward-looking
statements, as they involve implied assessment, based on certain
estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in
quantities predicted or estimated, and that the reserves can be
profitably produced in the future.
Forward-looking statements regarding Cardinal
are based on certain key expectations and assumptions of Cardinal
concerning anticipated financial performance, business prospects,
strategies, regulatory developments, current and future commodity
prices and exchange rates, applicable royalty rates, tax laws,
future well production rates and reserve volumes, future operating
costs, the performance of existing and future wells, the success of
its exploration and development activities, the sufficiency and
timing of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned
activities, the availability and cost of labor and services, the
impact of competition, conditions in general economic and financial
markets, access to markets, availability of drilling and related
equipment, effects of regulation by governmental agencies,
including curtailments, the ability to obtain financing on
acceptable terms which are subject to change based on commodity
prices, market conditions and potential timing delays.
These forward-looking statements are subject to
numerous risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond
Cardinal's control. Such risks and uncertainties include, without
limitation: the impact of general economic conditions; volatility
in market prices for crude oil and natural gas; industry
conditions; currency fluctuations; imprecision of reserve
estimates; liabilities inherent in crude oil and natural gas
operations; environmental risks; incorrect assessments of the value
of acquisitions and exploration and development programs;
competition from other producers; the lack of availability of
qualified personnel, drilling rigs or other services; changes in
income tax laws or changes in royalty rates and incentive programs
relating to the oil and gas industry; hazards such as fire,
explosion, blowouts, and spills, each of which could result in
substantial damage to wells, production facilities, other property
and the environment or in personal injury; and ability to access
sufficient capital from internal and external sources.
Management has included the forward-looking
statements above and a summary of assumptions and risks related to
forward-looking statements provided in this press release in order
to provide readers with a more complete perspective on Cardinal's
future operations and such information may not be appropriate for
other purposes. Cardinal's actual results, performance or
achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or
implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no
assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the
forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of
them do so, what benefits that Cardinal will derive there from.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not
exhaustive. These forward-looking statements are made as of the
date of this press release and Cardinal disclaims any intent or
obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events or results or
otherwise, other than as required by applicable securities
laws.
Oil and Gas Metrics The term
"boe" or barrels of oil equivalent may be misleading, particularly
if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic
feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil equivalent (6 Mcf: 1 bbl)
is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily
applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value
equivalency at the wellhead. Additionally, given that the value
ratio based on the current price of crude oil, as compared to
natural gas, is significantly different from the energy equivalency
of 6:1; utilizing a conversion ratio of 6:1 may be misleading as an
indication of value.
This press release contains a number of
additional oil and gas metrics, net asset value and reserve life
index, which do not have standardized meanings or standard methods
of calculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to
similar measures used by other companies. Such metrics have been
calculated by management and included herein to provide readers
with additional measures to evaluate Cardinal's performance;
however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the future
performance of Cardinal and future performance may not compare to
the performance in previous periods.
Development costs include costs of land and
seismic, but exclude capitalized general and administration costs.
The aggregate of the development costs incurred in the most recent
financial year and the change during that year in estimated future
development costs generally will not reflect total finding and
development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
Operating netback is equal to production revenues, less royalties,
operating and transportation expenses. Operating netback per boe is
calculated by dividing operating netback by total production
volumes sold in the period. Reserve life index is calculated based
on the amount for the relevant reserve category divided by fourth
quarter average daily company interest production.
Net asset value is based on the NPV at varying
discount rates before tax for the respective reserve category less
net debt.
Certain financial and operating information
included in this press release for the year ended December 31, 2020
are based on estimated unaudited financial results for the year
then ended, and are subject to the same limitations as discussed
under Forward Looking Statements set out above. These
estimated amounts may change upon the completion of audited
financial statements for the year ended December 31,
2020 and changes could be material.
Supplemental Information Regarding
Product Types
This press release includes references 2020
production. The following table is intended to provide the product
type composition as defined by NI 51-101.
|
LIGHT/MEDIUMCRUDE OIL |
HEAVY OIL |
NGL |
CONVENTIONALNATURAL GAS |
TOTAL (BOE/D) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4/20 |
55% |
27% |
6% |
12% |
18,625 |
Q2/20 |
57% |
27% |
4% |
12% |
17,169 |
Reserves Advisories
Unless otherwise indicated, all reserves
reported in this press release are Company share gross reserves
which represent Cardinal's total working interest reserves prior to
the deduction of royalties payable.
Future net revenue is a forecast of revenue,
estimated using forecast prices and costs arising from the
anticipated development and production of resources, net of
associated royalties, operating costs, development costs and all
corporate abandonment and reclamation costs for all active and
inactive wells, pipelines and facilities. It should not be assumed
that the future net revenues undiscounted and discounted at 10%
included in this press release represent the fair market value of
the reserves.
Reserve Definitions:
"Proved" reserves are those reserves that can be
estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is
likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed
the estimated proved reserves.
"Probable" reserves are those additional
reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved
reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities
recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated
proved plus probable reserves.
"Developed" reserves are those reserves that are
expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed
facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would
involve a low expenditure (e.g. when compared to the cost of
drilling a well) to put the reserves on production.
"Developed Producing" reserves are those
reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion
intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be
currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been
on production, and the date of resumption of production must be
known with reasonable certainty.
"Developed Non-Producing" reserves are those
reserves that either have not been on production, or have
previously been on production, but are shut in, and the date of
resumption of production is unknown.
"Undeveloped" reserves are those reserves
expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a
significant expenditure (for example, when compared to the cost of
drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production.
They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves
classification (proved, probable, possible) to which they are
assigned.
Drilling Locations
This news release discloses Cardinal's 76 net
booked drilling (54 proved and 22 probable locations) locations
which are included in the 2020 Reserve Report. There is no
certainty that we will drill all drilling locations and if drilled
there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional
oil and gas production. The drilling locations on which we actually
drill wells will ultimately depend upon the availability of
capital, regulatory approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and
natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional
reservoir information that is obtained and other factors.
Non-GAAP measures
This press release contains the term "net debt"
which does not have a standardized meaning prescribed by
International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS" or,
alternatively, "GAAP") and therefore may not be comparable with the
calculation of similar measures by other companies. The term "net
debt" is not recognized under GAAP and is calculated as bank debt
plus the principal amount of convertible unsecured subordinated
debentures ("convertible debentures"), secured notes and current
liabilities less current assets (adjusted for the fair value of
financial instruments, the current portion of lease liabilities and
the current portion of the decommissioning obligation). Net debt is
used by management to analyze the financial position, liquidity and
leverage of Cardinal.
About Cardinal Energy Ltd.
One of Cardinal's goals is to continually
improve our Environmental, Safety and Governance mandate and
operate our assets in a responsible and environmentally sensitive
manner. As part of this mandate, Cardinal injects and
conserves more carbon than it emits making us one of the few
Canadian energy companies to have a negative carbon footprint.
Cardinal is a Canadian oil focused company built
to provide investors with a stable platform for dividend income.
Cardinal's operations are focused in low decline light and medium
quality oil in Western Canada.
For further information: M.
Scott Ratushny, CEO or Shawn Van Spankeren, CFO or Laurence Broos,
VP Finance Email: info@cardinalenergy.caPhone: (403) 234-8681
Website: www.cardinalenergy.ca
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