Investment-Grade Bond Sales Soar As Borrowing Costs Sink
29 September 2010 - 12:15AM
Dow Jones News
Investors have snapped up more than $100 billion of
investment-grade bonds so far this month, making September the
busiest month for new issuance this year as highly rated companies
take advantage of low interest rates to borrow cheaply.
High-grade corporate bond sales have surpassed the previous
monthly high of $102.3 billion in March, though the year-to-date
total trails last year's record pace. Bankers forecast as much as
$20 billion this week alone after BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) offered $3.5
billion of debt Tuesday and others sold $11 billion on Monday.
Corporate treasurers at Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Johnson &
Johnson (JNJ) and other highly rated industrial companies--that is,
not banks, which are frequent bond issuers--have been stockpiling
cash to fund future opportunities and perhaps to reward
shareholders with share buybacks or dividends.
"These issuers really care about the fixed-rate cost of debt and
what they pay...to hold rainy day money when it is not in use,"
said Jonny Fine, head of investment grade syndicate at Goldman
Sachs.
A steady decline in borrowing costs--the most recent being
Microsoft's ability to sell $1 billion of three-year notes at an
interest rate of less than 1% last week--is behind the boom, and
the market has been able to absorb the supply seemingly without
indigestion. So what gives?
Risk-averse investors seeking to avoid stock market volatility
have been bidding up the price of U.S. Treasury securities all
summer long, steadily driving down their yields, which move
inversely to price.
That led others to turn to high-grade corporate bonds in search
of higher returns. The demand has let companies cut their borrowing
costs even as they borrow more. Andrew Karp, head of
investment-grade debt syndicate at Bank of America Merrill Lynch,
said the cost of money is "materially more attractive than the
previous quarter."
September is traditionally a high-volume month because investors
return from Labor Day eager to put money to work after summer. It
was doubly busy this year because issuance all but dried up after
Europe's sovereign debt crisis in the spring. There was also less
merger and acquisition activity in the first half, which eliminated
a chunk of the normal need for financing.
That changed after the release of the European stress test
results in July, which calmed investors' nerves and encouraged
issuers to come out with all that pent-up supply, said Karp.
"The first quarter is normally the busiest as people think about
doing their funding then and the second quarter follows on from
that," he said. "So this is unique in that the third quarter will
be bigger than the second."
Additionally, some deals may have been brought forward because
of November's mid-term elections, or because of the growing
acknowledgement that there may not be a double-dip recession after
all.
"Uncertainty regarding the election outcome and potential
changes to tax policy have prompted issuers to accelerate funding
plans," said Peter Aherne, head of capital markets and syndicate at
Citigroup.
Demand still outstrips supply, for now. Lipper FMI said that
inflows into U.S. corporate investment-grade debt mutual funds and
exchange-traded funds totaled $872.2 million last week, up 0.24% on
the week before.
The funds gained nearly half a percent from the prior week,
showing that high-grade bonds are appreciating in value even as
more debt is being sold at historically low yields.
High-grade bonds have produced a total return of 10.3% year to
date, well above the long-term average of 6% for the asset class,
said Edward Marrinan, head of credit strategy at Royal Bank of
Scotland. But it's a gift that may not keep giving because more and
more investors say they have sunk as much in bonds as they can
under their risk mandates and return targets.
"As yields fall, it simply does not make sense for every
investor to continue to buy investment-grade new issues," said
Marrinan. "Every bit tighter spreads go, every bit more that yields
fall, and every additional month of record supply stretches that
premise."
Ashish Shah, co-head of credit at AllianceBernstein, said
investors like him prefer to spend a baseline amount and wait to
see if returns are sufficiently attractive before committing any
more. "If issuance continues to be robust," he said, investors will
exhaust their baseline investments and then "go on 'strike' until
yields are more attractive."
As of Monday, the high-grade tally so far this year was $597.9
billion, according to Dealogic, which began keeping records in
1995. That's about 26% off the dollar amount to this point last
year but is up 42% in terms of the number of deals coming to
market.
Excluding government-guaranteed bonds, however, issuance this
year is up 4% in volume terms and 62% by deal count. More may be
coming: In the last few days there has been merger-and-acquisition
deal news from big companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT),
Unilever PLC (UL) and International Business Machines Corp.
(IBM).
-By Katy Burne, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3084;
katy.burne@dowjones.com
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