Citigroup's Stock At $5 -- And Beyond
13 Januar 2011 - 10:00PM
Dow Jones News
Citigroup Inc. (C) Chief Executive Vikram Pandit has said for
some months that Citi has turned the corner; now Wall Street
finally seems to agree.
On Wednesday, Citi's stock closed above $5 for the first time
since Aug. 28, 2009, a psychological milestone. On Thursday
afternoon, it was trading at $5.05, down 0.6%.
The $5 threshold has lost some of its financial significance for
stocks during the financial crisis. It used to be a barrier for
mutual funds, which often couldn't invest in stocks that trade
below $5, but those policies were largely dropped during the
financial crisis, said JMP Securities analyst David Trone.
Still, for Citi, finally achieving stock price perch at $5
demonstrates Wall Street's recognition of the bank's return to
profitability last year, and the departure of the Treasury
Department as a Citi common shareholder.
"Pandit has done a remarkable job in making the company more
transparent... cleaning up problem assets and positioning the
company to take advantage of global growth opportunities," Frank J.
Barkocy, director of research at Mendon Capital Advisors, said. He
is "getting at least some of the recognition he deserves."
But Citi continues to face considerable challenges in terms of
financial goals and market capitalization. On Sept. 30, Citi's book
value, a benchmark for stock prices that reflects assets minus
liabilities, was $5.60 per share. (Book value excluding intangible
assets like goodwill was $4.44.)
Arch-rival J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) traded at $44.40 on
Thursday, almost 5% above book value of $42.29. But Citi isn't the
only ugly duckling anymore: Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the
nation's largest bank by assets and deposits, traded at $14.78,
about 30% below book value of $21.17. It struggles with concerns
about the regulatory impact on its U.S. consumer business and
soured mortgages it sold to private investors that it might have to
take back.
Citigroup still has to reinstate its dividend, and that's likely
to be later than its peers. Unlike J.P. Morgan, Citi isn't expected
to restore its dividend until 2012. And for some investors,
dividends are critical.
Furthermore, it's continuing to divest a big chunk of businesses
management believes don't fit with its narrower banking focus. For
example, its consumer lending business, recently renamed OneMain
Financial, is expected to be sold this year. Another big unit is
Citi's operation that issues credit cards for retailers like Sears
Holdings Corp. (SHLD) and Macy's Inc. (M). That card business is
part of Citi Holdings, the segment that Pandit wants to
liquidate.
"The next leg up in the shares will occur when investors gain
more visibility with the required capital levels and signs
regulators are comfortable with the company growing once again,"
said Todd Hagerman, an analyst with Collins Stewart LLC.
"Absent a near-term return to growth and redeployment of excess
capital, the valuation is once again looking relatively full," he
said.
Other analysts beg to differ. Barkocy said Citi "shares still
offer among the best values of the money-center banks," and Raymond
James & Associates analyst Anthony Polini said he expects Citi
to hit $6.50 by the end of this year.
Citi is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday
and, on average, analyst expect the company to report a profit of 8
cents per share, compared to a 33-cent loss a year earlier. "We
expect [fourth quarter] results to be highlighted by improving
credit quality, growth from emerging markets, and a lower level of
losses and increased asset sales at Citi Holdings," Polini wrote in
a research note Thursday.
-By Matthias Rieker, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2471;
matthias.rieker@dowjones.com
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