In the domestic environment, the agreement reached between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) in June 2018 did not restore confidence as expected and triggered a new round of capital outflows and strong depreciation of the peso during the third quarter of 2018, which only settled down after a renewed commitment to perform greater
fiscal adjustments, which will aim to reach balance in 2019. In this context a new agreement with the IMF was reached, going from USD 50 billion to USD 56.7 billion and doubling the funds available for 2018 and 2019.
In addition, following the change in the BCRA President, the inflation-targeting plan was abandoned and a new monetary exchange system was established that
seeks to keep the monetary base constant in nominal terms until June 2019 and establishes an exchange rate range of
non-intervention,
with limited intervention of the BCRA outside such range.
Year to date, the government has over-fulfilled its fiscal goals. The program with the IMF guarantees that Argentina will be able to fulfill its financial
program this year with a roll-over of only 50% of the maturities of Letes in U.S. dollars and 100% of those denominated in pesos.
The economic activity
was affected by the bad harvest due to the severe drought that occurred in the first months of the year and by the FX crisis. In the second quarter of 2018, GDP decreased 4.2% year-over-year, but the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE for
its acronym in Spanish) with data up to August 2018 shows an incipient recovery in seasonally adjusted monthly variations that were positive in July (1.4%) and August (1.3%).
The Inflation rate increased since the end of the first quarter mainly due to the pass-through effect from the currency depreciation to prices. Inflation
amounted to 14.1% in the period July-September, thus the National CPI accumulated a variation of 32.4% for the first nine months of 2018.
The labor
market also begins to show the effects of a recession. The unemployment rate amounted to 9.6% in September 2018 compared to 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2017.
In the third quarter of 2018, the trade balance reached a deficit of USD 1.6 billion, a contraction of 37% compared to the third quarter of 2017.
Due to the economy slowdown, the demand for credit has plunged. Thus, during the third quarter, the stock of loans to the
non-financial
private sector increased by 11.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 58.7% year-over-year, which implies a deceleration in comparison to the increase by 14, 9% and 60.7% of the second
quarter for such periods, respectively.
Private sector deposits increased by 19.0% during the quarter and by 66.9% year-over-year, very similar to the
second quarter, when private sector deposits increased by 18.6% and by 45.5% for such periods, respectively. It should be noted that deposits remain stable due to the limited impact of the FX situation on the financial sector.
Presentation of the Information
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The consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2018 and as of June 30, 2018 are presented in
accordance with Communication A 6114 of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) (financial statements under IFRS regulations). For comparative purposes, the amounts for the third quarter 2017 are presented in accordance with IFRS.
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The information in this press release contains unaudited financial information that consolidates, line item by
line item, all of the banking activities of BBVA Francés (Francés Valores and Francés Administradora de Inversiones). As of the first quarter of 2018, the Banks share interest in PSA Finance is no longer disclosed on a
consolidated basis but is recorded as Investments in associates (recorded under the proportional equity method), and the corresponding results are recorded as Income from associates, as with Rombo Compañia Financiera.
As of September 25, 2018, the Banks share interest in Volkswagen Financial Services is no longer disclosed on a consolidated basis.
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The balances in foreign currency as of September 30, 2018 were converted into pesos at the reference
exchange rate published by the BCRA for such date (AR$ 40.8967/USD).
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