The year 2013 was rock solid for the global equity market and the
ETFs world thanks to investor appetite for riskier assets, Fed easy
money policies, solid earnings growth and improving global
economies conditions (read: 2013 ETF Asset Report: Developed
Markets Rule, Gold Falters).
A healing job market, recovery in the housing market and robust
retail sales are boosting growth in the largest world economy. In
addition, the Fed decided to keep its interest rates at lower
levels for sometime despite its plan to curtail the pace of the
ongoing stimulus starting in January. This suggests increased
confidence in the U.S. economy’s growth rate and job scenario as
well as a bullish outlook for 2014.
Further, the two-year bipartisan budget deal eases spending cuts
and political dysfunction, and erases the prospect of another
shutdown, which was looming large across the global economy. All
these positive news flows have propelled the equity market higher.
The MSCI World Index as well as the major U.S. benchmarks – Dow and
the S&P 500 – gained over 20% this year.
While there have been winners in every corner of the space
delivering smart returns in 2013, some of the sector/country ETFs
are still lagging. These funds plunged in double digits, suggesting
some more downside ahead in 2014 (read: 3 Hot Sector ETFs for
2014).
Metal Mining ETFs
The worst performer of 2013 globally is definitely the mining
world, in particular gold and silver miners. Due to plunging metal
prices and unfavorable market conditions, miners faced a rough
year. Acting as leveraged plays on underlying metal prices, metal
miners tend to experience bigger losses than their bullion cousins
when there is a slump in the metal market.
Though there are several ETFs that were badly hit from these
trends, two funds –
Global X Gold Explorers ETF
(GLDX) and
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF
(GDXJ) – have seen
terrible performances in the metal mining ETF world. Both lost more
than 61% of their value.
Out of the two, GDXJ is more popular with AUM of $1.1 billion and
is cheaper than GLDX by 10 bps. The fund provides exposure to 50
stocks by tracking the Market Vectors Global Junior Gold Miners
Index. Canadian firms take the top spot at 60.3%, though Australia
(20.3%) and the U.S. (9.8%) round out the top three (read: Pain or
Gain Ahead for Gold Mining ETFs?).
On the other hand, GLDX tracks the Solactive Global Gold Explorers
Index and holds a small basket of 19 gold mining firms across the
globe. Here also, Canadian firms dominate the fund’s return with
85% of total assets while Australia, U.S., and United Kingdom
companies take the remainder.
Single Country ETFs
Most of the developed economies saw strong growth in 2013, but
developing nations lagged thanks to taper talk speculation and a
resultant surge in the dollar. In particular, three countries –
Turkey, India and Brazil – have seen rough trading throughout the
year.
The ETFs tracking these nations –
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
(TUR),
Market
Vectors India Small-Cap Fund
(SCIF) and
Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF
(BRF) – each lost nearly
30%. Some political issues in the nations have also dragged down
these ETFs for most of the year (read: 3 Emerging Market ETFs to
Watch for Political Issues in 2014).
Generally, small cap funds tend to lose more from the slowdown in
the economy compared to large caps and vice versa. However, this is
not true for Turkey.
Though Turkey ETF is a large cap centric fund, it is one of the
worst performing country ETFs as the nation has been struggling
from protests in Istanbul. The outcome of this uncertain situation
and upcoming elections in 2014 are making the fund less attractive
(read: Is the Turkey ETF in Trouble Again?).
The bearish trend is expected to continue in 2014 as well across
these nations resulting from the final QE taper, lower commodity
prices, sluggish export, weak monetary policy and falling
currencies.
Commodity Producer ETFs
Like the metal mining industry, commodity producers like those
dealing with rare earth metals, uranium and fertilizer have also
seen a bumpy road throughout the year due to subdued global trends
and commodity-specific risks.
The
Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF
(REMX) plunged nearly
32% in 2013 and provides pure exposure to 21 companies primarily
engaged in mining, refining and manufacturing of rare
earth/strategic metals. From a country look, American firms
dominate the portfolio at 27% of total assets, closely followed by
Australia (15%).
The
Global X Uranium ETF
(URA) offers a pure play
in uranium with more focus on uranium producers and less on nuclear
energy producers. The fund holds 24 stocks in its basket with
Canadian firms making up for the largest share at 59% while
Australia takes the second spot at 23%. The ETF lost over 23% in
the same time frame (see: all the Materials ETFs here).
The only ETF that offers exposure to the fertilizer industry is the
Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF
(SOIL). Holding 24
stocks in its basket, country exposure is tilted toward the U.S.
with 24% share while Israel, Canada, China and Australia also make
up for a decent allocation. The ETF was down about 18% in 2013.
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MKT VEC-BRZL SC (BRF): ETF Research Reports
MKT VEC-JR GOLD (GDXJ): ETF Research Reports
GLBL-X GOLD EXP (GLDX): ETF Research Reports
MKT VEC-INDI SC (SCIF): ETF Research Reports
GLBL-X FERT/POT (SOIL): ETF Research Reports
ISHRS-MSCI TURK (TUR): ETF Research Reports
GLBL-X URANIUM (URA): ETF Research Reports
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