Corn Drops as Weather Bets Waver
07 Juli 2020 - 9:39PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
--Corn for December delivery fell 1% to $3.52 1/2 a bushel on
the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, with grains traders less
optimistic that hot weather would put a dent on abundant crop
supplies.
--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.4% to $9.02 1/2 a
bushel.
--Wheat for September delivery rose 0.4% to $4.95 1/4 a
bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Rain or Shine?: Uncertainty about what the weather will look
like in the U.S. Corn Belt this week - which had grain futures up
yesterday - pulled them down today. "Some forecasters are calling
for significant stress for crops over the next 10 days, while
others believe that timely showers will continue to help the crops
get by until the pattern turns - hopefully by late this month,"
said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. "It all comes down to how you
interpret various changes occurring in both Pacific sea surface
temperatures and atmospheric drivers, and which factors will
dominate in shaping Midwest conditions."
Napoleon Complex: Unlike corn or soybean futures, CBOT wheat
futures rose in response to indications that the French wheat crop
will be smaller than previously anticipated. France's agricultural
ministry estimates its 2020 soft wheat harvest at 31.3 million
metric tons, down 8 million tons or 21% from last year. It'd be the
smallest French crop since 2003, according to the ministry. The
news drove wheat futures higher Tuesday, said Terry Reilly of
Futures International.
INSIGHTS
Amber Waves: The USDA's monthly WASDE report is due out noon ET
on Friday, and in it grains traders are expecting to see updated
production, stockpile, and yield data for corn and soybeans.
Overall, this updated data is expected to show that U.S. crop
supplies will stay abundant this year - even with hot weather this
summer drying out soils while crops attempt to grow. "Don't look
for anything bullish in the numbers Friday with trend yields likely
to project large corn supplies and adequate bean supplies," said
Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives.
Lackluster: Despite a strong showing for grain export
inspections on Monday, grains traders are still concerned that a
lack of notices from the USDA about sales of grains over 100,000
metric tons to China means little in the way of new sales are
actually happening. "What has been absent so far this summer is
sales to nations other than China," said AgResource. "Covid-19
appears to have a negative impact on world grain trade." Without
strong demand from the export market, U.S. farmers may have a
tougher time selling their crop - as domestic demand has stayed
weak in the U.S., especially with a resurgence of coronavirus in
some states. "The U.S. market lacks a demand driver to push
grain/soy upwards, " the firm said.
Record Haul: Canadian National Railway said that it moved a
record amount of Canadian grains in the first half of 2020 -
transporting 15 million metric tons of grain for the year through
June 30. The company says that it's on pace to transport 26.9
million tons by the end of the year, which would break last years'
record of 26.5 million tons. "From Canadian farmers to port
terminals, these achievements are a testament to the strength of
our supply chain and its ability to meet the continued strong
global demand for grain," said James Cairns, the company's senior
vice president of Rail Centric Supply Chain. CN's record
performance comes despite the coronavirus pandemic impacting demand
for grains globally.
AHEAD:
--The EIA releases its weekly update on ethanol production and
inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its latest weekly export sales numbers
at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
--The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET
Friday.
--The CFTC releases its weekly commitment of traders report at
3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 07, 2020 15:24 ET (19:24 GMT)
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