Given a relatively small number of selling days (23), and
with Labor Day volume counted in August, total U.S. auto sales in
September are expected to be much lower than the year-ago and
month-prior levels
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Sept. 26,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On a volume estimate of 1.18
million units, S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. light vehicle
sales in September to realize a calendar-induced decline of
approximately 12% year-over-year. On the bright side, this would
translate to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million
units, a notable bump from the 15.2 million unit reading in August
and sustaining a volatile pattern for this monthly metric since
May. The month-to-month volatility in the SAAR reading
reflects the current state of auto demand.
"New vehicle sales remain stuck in neutral," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P
Global Mobility. "The overall tenor of the auto demand environment
remains one of consistent, but unmotivated volume levels as
consumers in the market continue to be pressured by high interest
rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to
high monthly payments."
Despite increasing to 2.88 million units at the end of August,
dealer advertised inventory in the U.S. has also largely leveled
out since the spring. "With 2025 model year vehicles now becoming
available at an increased rate (up 65% vs. July), pressure to sell
down remaining stock of 2024 model year vehicles will begin to
mount," suggests Matt Trommer, associate director of product
at S&P Global Mobility.
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected,
but given reports of some automakers culling output expectations
for the remainder of the year, affordability issues are expected to
remain stubbornly sticky even as the first interest rate cut was
made. In its September 2024 forecast
update, S&P Global Mobility has lowered its calendar year 2024
U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units, down from a previous
projection of 16.0 million units. Similarly, the S&P Global
Mobility light vehicle production outlook for North America has also been downgraded to a
2024 calendar year projection of 15.5 million units, reflecting
vehicle timing and inventory correction impacts.
|
|
|
|
|
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Sep 24
(Est)
|
Aug
24
|
Sep
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,183,000
|
1,418,771
|
1,340,980
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
16.0
|
15.1
|
15.8
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.8
|
12.2
|
12.5
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.2
|
2.9
|
3.3
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term light vehicle sales
forecast. According to S&P Global Mobility new registration
data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% in both June and July,
progress from levels earlier in the year. In the immediate term,
moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated. September BEV
share is expected to remain above 8% once again. Assisted by the
current roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and
Honda Prologue and to be followed by new BEVs such as the Polestar
3, Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in
the fourth quarter, electric vehicle sales are expected to advance
over the remainder of the year.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility