NEW
YORK, May 30, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow
Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for
the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of
U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2023 show a continuing recovery in housing
prices, as all 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month
price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for
the data series and can be accessed in full by going to
www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA
Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 0.7%
annual gain in March, down from 2.1% in the previous month. The
10-City Composite showed a decrease of -0.8%, down from 0.5%
increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a
-1.1% year-over-year loss, down from a 0.4% gain in the previous
month.
Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year
gains among the 20 cities in March. Miami led the way once again with a 7.7%
year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 4.8% increase, and
Charlotte replacing Atlanta in third with a 4.7% increase. There
are 19 of 20 cities reporting lower prices in the year ending
March 2023 versus the year ending
February 2023, with only Chicago showing an increase at 0.4%.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
1.3% month-over-month increase in March, while the 10-City and
20-City Composites posted increases of 1.6% and 1.5%,
respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the 10-City Composite
gained 0.6% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 0.5%.
ANALYSIS
"The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago
accelerated in March 2023," says
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director
at S&P DJI. "The National Composite rose by 1.3% in March, and
now stands only 3.6% below its June
2022 peak. Our 10- and 20-City Composites performed
similarly, with March gains of 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. On
a trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is only 0.7%
above its level in March 2022, with
the 10- and 20-City Composites modestly negative on a
year-over-year basis.
"The acceleration we observed nationally was also apparent at a
more granular level. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose
in all 20 cities in March (versus in 12 in February), and in all 20
price gains accelerated between February and March.
Seasonally adjusted data showed 15 cities with rising prices in
March (versus 11 in February), with acceleration in 14 cities.
"One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to
lie in its stark regional differences. Miami's 7.7% year-over-year gain made it the
best-performing city for the eighth consecutive month. Tampa (+4.8%) continued in second place,
narrowly ahead of bronze medalist Charlotte (+4.7%). The farther west we
look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the
league table. It's unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%)
remains the country's strongest region, while the West (-6.2%)
remains the weakest.
"Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery
make, but March's results suggest that the decline in home prices
that began in June 2022 may have come
to an end. That said, the challenges posed by current
mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness
are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the
next several months."
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for
the three composites along with the current levels and percentage
changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
2006
Peak
|
2012
Trough
|
Current
|
Index
|
Level
|
Date
|
Level
|
Date
|
From Peak
(%)
|
Level
|
From Trough
(%)
|
From Peak
(%)
|
National
|
184.61
|
Jul-06
|
134.00
|
Feb-12
|
-27.4 %
|
297.08
|
121.7 %
|
60.9 %
|
20-City
|
206.52
|
Jul-06
|
134.07
|
Mar-12
|
-35.1 %
|
302.30
|
125.5 %
|
46.4 %
|
10-City
|
226.29
|
Jun-06
|
146.45
|
Mar-12
|
-35.3 %
|
315.34
|
115.3 %
|
39.4 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2 below summarizes the results for March 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the
receipt of additional source data.
|
March
2023
|
March/February
|
February/January
|
1-Year
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
Level
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Atlanta
|
229.53
|
1.1 %
|
0.4 %
|
4.5 %
|
Boston
|
302.13
|
1.3 %
|
0.1 %
|
0.8 %
|
Charlotte
|
254.34
|
1.7 %
|
0.0 %
|
4.7 %
|
Chicago
|
185.01
|
1.9 %
|
0.0 %
|
4.0 %
|
Cleveland
|
170.07
|
0.6 %
|
0.0 %
|
2.0 %
|
Dallas
|
284.69
|
1.1 %
|
0.0 %
|
-1.2 %
|
Denver
|
309.00
|
2.0 %
|
0.8 %
|
-3.6 %
|
Detroit
|
168.74
|
2.2 %
|
-0.2 %
|
1.2 %
|
Las Vegas
|
268.49
|
0.5 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-5.1 %
|
Los Angeles
|
398.72
|
1.7 %
|
0.9 %
|
-2.9 %
|
Miami
|
400.18
|
0.7 %
|
-0.4 %
|
7.7 %
|
Minneapolis
|
227.90
|
2.0 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.5 %
|
New York
|
272.98
|
1.3 %
|
-0.2 %
|
3.3 %
|
Phoenix
|
309.24
|
0.5 %
|
0.1 %
|
-4.5 %
|
Portland
|
316.84
|
1.4 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-4.6 %
|
San Diego
|
394.17
|
2.5 %
|
1.5 %
|
-5.3 %
|
San
Francisco
|
339.30
|
3.0 %
|
1.0 %
|
-11.2 %
|
Seattle
|
352.44
|
2.0 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-12.4 %
|
Tampa
|
368.00
|
1.0 %
|
0.0 %
|
4.8 %
|
Washington
|
300.65
|
1.5 %
|
0.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Composite-10
|
315.34
|
1.6 %
|
0.4 %
|
-0.8 %
|
Composite-20
|
302.30
|
1.5 %
|
0.3 %
|
-1.1 %
|
U.S.
National
|
297.08
|
1.3 %
|
0.3 %
|
0.7 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
Data through March
2023
|
|
|
|
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the
seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported
on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline
indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices
publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline
indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
March/February
Change (%)
|
February/January
Change (%)
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
Atlanta
|
1.1 %
|
0.4 %
|
0.4 %
|
0.4 %
|
Boston
|
1.3 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.1 %
|
0.2 %
|
Charlotte
|
1.7 %
|
0.8 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.1 %
|
Chicago
|
1.9 %
|
0.9 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.3 %
|
Cleveland
|
0.6 %
|
-0.2 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.3 %
|
Dallas
|
1.1 %
|
-0.1 %
|
0.0 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Denver
|
2.0 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.8 %
|
0.3 %
|
Detroit
|
2.2 %
|
1.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Las Vegas
|
0.5 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.9 %
|
Los Angeles
|
1.7 %
|
0.4 %
|
0.9 %
|
0.5 %
|
Miami
|
0.7 %
|
0.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Minneapolis
|
2.0 %
|
1.0 %
|
0.0 %
|
-0.1 %
|
New York
|
1.3 %
|
1.1 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Phoenix
|
0.5 %
|
-0.4 %
|
0.1 %
|
0.1 %
|
Portland
|
1.4 %
|
0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
San Diego
|
2.5 %
|
1.0 %
|
1.5 %
|
0.1 %
|
San
Francisco
|
3.0 %
|
0.7 %
|
1.0 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Seattle
|
2.0 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-1.5 %
|
Tampa
|
1.0 %
|
0.3 %
|
0.0 %
|
0.0 %
|
Washington
|
1.5 %
|
0.5 %
|
0.4 %
|
0.2 %
|
Composite-10
|
1.6 %
|
0.6 %
|
0.4 %
|
0.0 %
|
Composite-20
|
1.5 %
|
0.5 %
|
0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
U.S.
National
|
1.3 %
|
0.4 %
|
0.3 %
|
0.3 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
Data through March
2023
|
|
|
|
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please
visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.
ABOUT S&P DOW JONES
INDICES
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(+1) 212 438 7530
april.kabahar@spglobal.com
S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com,
delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts
across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting
residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in
the United States. Readers and
viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where
feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the
last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am
ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path
of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area
provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of
individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales
data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of
single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions
and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of
the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted
average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value
of 100 in January 2000; thus, for
example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50%
appreciation rate since January 2000
for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements
between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by
CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering
thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets.
The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just
a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are
trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or
subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by
S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on
indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are
sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic
nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in
interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of
investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices