New light vehicle sales in April are expected to maintain the
pace of the preceding months; uncertainty remains for remainder of
year
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., April 25,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility
estimates new light vehicle sales volume in April 2023 to reach 1.29 million units, up
approximately 4% from April 2022 and
representing the ninth consecutive month in which volume has
improved from the year-ago level. This volume would translate to an
estimated sales pace of 15.2 million units SAAR (seasonally
adjusted annual rate), in line with the first quarter 2023 average
of 15.3 million units.
S&P Global Mobility estimates new light
vehicle sales volume in April 2023 to
reach 1.29 million units.
"Auto sales remain stuck at current levels," said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility. "With an auto sales environment currently
defined by the mixed signals of mildly advancing production,
inventory and incentives on one hand, and rising affordability
concerns and uncertain consumer confidence levels on the other,
expected demand in April falls under the 'no news is good news'
category. Auto sales will remain subject to the unsteadiness
apparent in the overall economy, with the likelihood of
month-to-month volatility ahead."
While sales continue to waver, the supply side of the auto
equation is beginning to show some sustained signs of improvement.
According to Joe Langley, associate
director at S&P Global Mobility, "North American production
results for March 2023 (the most
recent data available) are estimated to total 1.45 million
units, translating into 15.82 million units produced on a SAAR
basis. That is the highest level in 30 months."
S&P Global Mobility analysts do not expect sales volumes
over the next several months to dynamically change from the current
trend. However, demand-level constraints may shift from being
inventory-driven to more consumer-facing vehicle affordability
challenges, by way of continued high prices, uncertain economic
conditions, rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions.
That could lead to increasing inventories providing some sustained
downward pressure on new vehicle pricing.
U.S. Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Apr 23
(Est)
|
Mar
23
|
Apr
22
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,290,000
|
1,365,966
|
1,236,432
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.2
|
14.8
|
14.3
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.1
|
11.8
|
11.4
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.1
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains a constant assumption for 2023. However, the implementation
of the US federal EV incentive eligibility, ongoing price
adjustments from Tesla, and the Department of Energy's downward
restating of e-MPG ratings for electric vehicles could translate
into monthly BEV share becoming a bit more volatile in the upcoming
months.
The sales share of BEVs through the first quarter of 2023 is
estimated to be above 7%. On a projected level of 7% for April, BEV
share is expected to remain on trend. Beyond the pricing
developments, a sustained churn of new and refreshed BEVs will
continue to promote BEV sales as the year progresses.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility