NEW
YORK, April 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow
Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for
the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of
U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2023 show a modest increase in our
national composites, although eight of the 20 major metro markets
reported lower prices. More than 27 years of history are available
for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to
www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA
Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.0%
annual gain in February, down from 3.7% in the previous month. The
10-City Composite annual increase came in at 0.4%, down from 2.5%
in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 0.4%
year-over-year gain, down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta again reported the highest
year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February. The order
remained the same with Miami
leading the way with a 10.8% year-over-year price increase,
followed by Tampa in second with a
7.7% increase, and Atlanta in
third with a 6.6% increase. All 20 cities reported lower prices in
the year ending February 2023 versus
the year ending January 2023.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
0.2% month-over-month increase in February, while the 10-City and
20-City Composites posted increases of 0.3% and 0.2%,
respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while both the 10-City and
20-City Composites posted increases of 0.1%.
ANALYSIS
"Home price trends moderated in February
2023," says Craig J. Lazzara,
Managing Director at S&P DJI. "The National Composite, which
had declined for seven consecutive months, rose a modest 0.2% in
February, and now stands 4.9% below its June
2022 peak. Our 10- and 20-City Composites performed
similarly, with February gains of 0.3% and 0.2%; these Composites
are currently 6.0% and 6.6% below their respective peaks. On a
trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is only 2.0% above
its level in February 2022; the 10-
and 20-City Composites are both up 0.4% on a year-over-year
basis.
"The moderation we observed nationally is also apparent at a
more granular level. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in 12
cities in February (versus in only one in January). Seasonally
adjusted data showed nine cities with rising prices in February
(versus five in January). With or without seasonal adjustment, most
cities' February results showed improvement relative to their
January counterparts.
"February's results were most interesting because of their stark
regional differences. Miami's
10.8% year-over-year gain made it the best-performing city for the
seventh consecutive month. Tampa
(+7.7%) and Atlanta (+6.6%)
continued in second and third place, with Charlotte (+6.0%) close behind. Results were
different in the Pacific and Mountain time zones. Last month, four
West Coast cities (San Francisco,
Seattle, San Diego, and Portland) were in negative year-over-year
territory. In February they were joined by four of their western
neighbors, as Las Vegas (-2.6%),
Phoenix (-2.1%), Los Angeles (-1.3%), and Denver (-1.2%) all tipped into negative
territory. It's unsurprising that the Southeast (+7.8%) remains the
country's strongest region, while the West (-4.2%) continues as the
weakest.
"The results released today pre-date the disruptions in the
commercial banking industry which began in early March. Although
forecasts are mixed, so far the Federal Reserve seems focused on
its inflation-reduction targets, which suggests that interest rates
may remain elevated, at least in the near-term. Mortgage financing
and the prospect of economic weakness are therefore likely to
remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several
months."
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for
the three composites along with the current levels and percentage
changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
2006
Peak
|
2012
Trough
|
Current
|
Index
|
Level
|
Date
|
Level
|
Date
|
From Peak
(%)
|
Level
|
From Trough
(%)
|
From Peak
(%)
|
National
|
184.61
|
Jul-06
|
134.00
|
Feb-12
|
-27.4 %
|
293.17
|
118.8 %
|
58.8 %
|
20-City
|
206.52
|
Jul-06
|
134.07
|
Mar-12
|
-35.1 %
|
297.68
|
122.0 %
|
44.1 %
|
10-City
|
226.29
|
Jun-06
|
146.45
|
Mar-12
|
-35.3 %
|
310.26
|
111.9 %
|
37.1 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the
receipt of additional source data.
|
February
2023
|
February/January
|
January '23/December
'22
|
1-Year
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
Level
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Atlanta
|
226.99
|
0.4 %
|
-0.3 %
|
6.6 %
|
Boston
|
298.13
|
0.1 %
|
-0.2 %
|
2.2 %
|
Charlotte
|
250.23
|
0.0 %
|
-0.3 %
|
6.0 %
|
Chicago
|
181.61
|
0.0 %
|
-0.5 %
|
3.6 %
|
Cleveland
|
169.20
|
0.0 %
|
-0.6 %
|
3.9 %
|
Dallas
|
281.64
|
0.0 %
|
-0.9 %
|
2.0 %
|
Denver
|
303.06
|
0.8 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.2 %
|
Detroit
|
165.08
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.7 %
|
1.6 %
|
Las Vegas
|
267.27
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.4 %
|
-2.6 %
|
Los Angeles
|
392.29
|
1.0 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-1.3 %
|
Miami
|
397.38
|
-0.4 %
|
0.2 %
|
10.8 %
|
Minneapolis
|
223.42
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.9 %
|
0.5 %
|
New York
|
269.24
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.4 %
|
3.6 %
|
Phoenix
|
307.81
|
0.1 %
|
-1.2 %
|
-2.1 %
|
Portland
|
312.36
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-3.2 %
|
San Diego
|
384.83
|
1.5 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-4.1 %
|
San
Francisco
|
329.79
|
1.0 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-10.0 %
|
Seattle
|
345.67
|
-0.3 %
|
-1.4 %
|
-9.3 %
|
Tampa
|
364.59
|
0.1 %
|
-0.7 %
|
7.7 %
|
Washington
|
296.40
|
0.4 %
|
-0.7 %
|
1.1 %
|
Composite-10
|
310.26
|
0.3 %
|
-0.4 %
|
0.4 %
|
Composite-20
|
297.68
|
0.2 %
|
-0.6 %
|
0.4 %
|
U.S.
National
|
293.17
|
0.2 %
|
-0.6 %
|
2.0 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
Data through
February 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the
seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported
on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline
indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices
publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline
indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
February/January
Change (%)
|
January '23/December
'22 Change (%)
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
Atlanta
|
0.4 %
|
0.5 %
|
-0.3 %
|
0.0 %
|
Boston
|
0.1 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.2 %
|
0.3 %
|
Charlotte
|
0.0 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.3 %
|
0.3 %
|
Chicago
|
0.0 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.5 %
|
0.0 %
|
Cleveland
|
0.0 %
|
0.3 %
|
-0.6 %
|
0.1 %
|
Dallas
|
0.0 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Denver
|
0.8 %
|
0.4 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.0 %
|
Detroit
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Las Vegas
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.4 %
|
-1.1 %
|
Los Angeles
|
1.0 %
|
0.6 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Miami
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
0.2 %
|
0.2 %
|
Minneapolis
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.2 %
|
New York
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Phoenix
|
0.1 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.7 %
|
Portland
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.6 %
|
San Diego
|
1.5 %
|
0.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.4 %
|
San
Francisco
|
1.0 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.8 %
|
Seattle
|
-0.3 %
|
-1.5 %
|
-1.4 %
|
-1.6 %
|
Tampa
|
0.1 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Washington
|
0.4 %
|
0.2 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Composite-10
|
0.3 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Composite-20
|
0.2 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.4 %
|
U.S.
National
|
0.2 %
|
0.2 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
|
|
Data through
February 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please
visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.
ABOUT S&P DOW JONES
INDICES
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delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts
across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting
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the United States. Readers and
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feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the
last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am
ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path
of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area
provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of
individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales
data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of
single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions
and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of
the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted
average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value
of 100 in January 2000; thus, for
example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50%
appreciation rate since January 2000
for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements
between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by
CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering
thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets.
The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just
a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are
trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or
subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by
S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on
indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are
sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic
nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in
interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of
investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices