An uncertain economic environment and new vehicle
affordability concerns keep March
2023 auto sales steady but unspectacular
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., March 23,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month
projected at 1.27 million units, S&P Global Mobility analysts
expect March 2023 to be up more than
11% from the month-prior tally, attributable to three additional
selling days. The expected March 2023
volume would be aligned with the year-ago period (with the same
number of selling days), reflecting that sales momentum will be
difficult to sustain given current economic headwinds and
tailwinds.
S&P Global Mobility analysts expect
March 2023 to be up more than 11%
from the month-prior tally
March 2023 US auto sales are
expected to translate to an estimated sales pace of 13.8 million
units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), down meaningfully
from the January 2023 reading of 15.9
million units. However, that pace would bring the first quarter
average sales rate to 14.9 million units. This would represent the
strongest quarterly pace since the second quarter of 2021 – albeit
nowhere near the SAAR reading of 16.7 million units at that
time, when the auto market was still experiencing the
pleasantness of stimulus checks and before supply chain issues
began.
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Mar 23
(Est)
|
Feb
23
|
Mar
22
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,270,000
|
1,136,300
|
1,257,800
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
13.8
|
14.9
|
13.6
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
11.1
|
11.9
|
10.8
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
2.8
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), US Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
"Incoming reports of sustained – but still muted - retail demand
in March reflect that those auto consumers willing, ready, and able
to enter into a new vehicle agreement are continuing to do so, even
in light of rising interest rates and still-high vehicle price
levels," said Chris Hopson,
principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "New vehicle
incentives are rising slowly from historically low levels as
vehicle production advances. The specter of further hikes in
interest rates, and acceptance of current unsettled economic
conditions, may be providing impetus for those considering
purchasing a new vehicle."
S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2023 volume of
14.9 million units in the US, an 8% increase from the 2022 tally.
Auto sales will be supported by advancing production levels, along
with reports of sustained retail order books, recovering stock of
vehicles, and improved fleet demand.
Sustained development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains a consistent assumption for 2023. BEV share has hovered
around 8% over the course of the first two months of the year. At a
projected level of 8.0% share is expected to remain strong. While
Tesla's pricing adjustments were the first shot in a BEV price war,
the reaction of other auto companies will determine whether the
gains in the BEV mix level will be a blip in the trend or a dynamic
tipping point in the electrification progress of the market. Beyond
the pricing developments, a sustained churn of new and refreshed
BEVs will continue to promote BEV sales as the year
progresses.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility