Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Analyst Reveals Bear Case That Could Send Price To $28,000
04 November 2024 - 11:30AM
NEWSBTC
Speculations about the Bitcoin bull market being over have been
rife in the crypto market, particularly as the price has failed to
reach its March all-time high of above $73,000. Providing a more
compelling case to this narrative, a crypto analyst has released a
Bitcoin bear case scenario that could see the pioneer
cryptocurrency decline to $28,000. Bitcoin Bear Case Unveiled
In an X (formerly Twitter) post, crypto analyst and Position trader
Bob Loukas revealed a “Bitcoin bear case,” unveiling a more
unorthodox and bearish scenario for Bitcoin than most analysts have
suggested. Basing his bearish scenarios on the cycle theory, Loukas
proposes that Bitcoin might be part of the broader 16-year cycle,
with the current market marking the final four-year phase of this
cycle. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Burn Rate Surge 24,271%
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The analyst suggested that this four-year phase could end in two
ways — a distribution phase, where prices peak and then decline, or
an upward phase, where Bitcoin experiences one last upsurge before
a downturn begins. Loukas has revealed that while cycle trends can
help predict or provide insights into a cryptocurrency’s future
price movements, he emphasizes that “no power law” guarantees that
an asset’s price will continually go up. The analyst aims to
desensitize investors into believing Bitcoin will forever be
bullish with no downturns. He asserts that a bear cycle is
inevitable at some point, though the timing remains
uncertain. Loukas pinpointed specific price movements in his
Bitcoin chart that could serve as a bearish signal, suggesting a
potential downturn. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin could drop to
new lows around $28,500 by 2026. He also forecasted that after a
period of volatility consisting of price declines and surges, the
cryptocurrency could rise again to $59,500 by 2027. For more
clarity, Loukas has proposed a narrative, suggesting that if
Bitcoin were to close below the 10-month Moving Average (MA) during
a “bull market,” it would be a cause for concern. Similarly, a
monthly close below the $58,800 mark could indicate the start of a
potential downward spiral. The crypto analyst has estimated a
10% to 15% chance of this bearish scenario occurring, emphasizing
that it was a possibility and not a certainty. He clarified that
while he believes the current market cycle leans towards a more
bullish scenario based on historical evidence, he always considers
alternative scenarios. This approach is likely due to the crypto
market’s inherent unpredictability and notorious volatility.
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Was Before 2021 Rally, What This Means Analyst Sees Retail Activity
Fueling A BTC Downtrend While unveiling his Bitcoin bear case
scenario, Loukas disclosed that broader interest in
cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin has faded significantly. He
revealed that there is a lack of new retail investors, and this
weakening enthusiasm could pose a serious challenge for Bitcoin to
generate new capital for growth. According to Loukas, retail
investors’ disinterest may stem from a shift in sentiment.
Embracing cryptocurrencies has dwindled to mere speculation, and
fewer people believe in their transformative potential.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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