Bitcoin Price Could Peak In 200 Days, Before US Recession In Mid-2025, Report Says
14 November 2024 - 3:30AM
NEWSBTC
The current Bitcoin (BTC) rally could extend until mid-2025, with a
potential price peak before a US recession. Bitcoin Could Peak In
Mid-2025 Before US Recession A recent Copper Research report, a
recent crypto research firm, posits that the leading
cryptocurrency by market cap could extend its bullish momentum
until mid-2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Reveals Bulls
Are Growing But Still Behind March 2024 Peak – Details As of
November 13, Bitcoin is on day 555 of its current market cycle, and
a price peak for the digital asset could arrive within the next 200
days. Notably, this peak may coincide with a potential US recession
forecasted for mid-2025. According to the report, Bitcoin’s market
cycles average 756 days. The starting point of these cycles is when
the annual average growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalization turns
positive, while the endpoint is when it hits a price peak. The
report marks the beginning of the current market cycle around
mid-2023, just before asset manager BlackRock filed for a BTC
exchange-traded fund (ETF). Should Bitcoin stay true to its
historical price patterns, the digital asset can hit its price peak
for this cycle sometime around mid-2025. The report cites estimates
by JPMorgan about the likelihood of a US recession in mid-2025. As
a result, BTC’s price peak might align with a potential US economic
downturn. Based on data from Treasury spreads, JPMorgan gives a 45%
chance of a potential US recession by mid-2025. The report
further highlights the gap between BTC’s price top and realized
volatility. For the uninitiated, realized volatility measures BTC’s
price fluctuations over a specific period, showing the standard
deviation of the asset’s returns from the market’s mean return.
BTC’s realized volatility currently stands at around 50%,
indicating that its volatility is only halfway to previous bull
market peaks. Another bullish technical indicator for the BTC price
trajectory is its filtered relative strength index (RSI). The
report reads: Currently, the RSI sits at 60 – well below previous
bull market highs – indicating considerable room for Bitcoin to
continue building momentum into the new year. BTC Could Rise
Further, But Caution Is Necessary The digital assets market has
been on a strong upward trend since pro-crypto Donald Trump’s
victory in the 2024 US presidential election. Related
Reading: Bitcoin ETFs See Historic Surge – Institutions Go Bullish
On BTC With $1.38 Billion Record Inflows Notably, the emerging
industry has witnessed its total market cap surge beyond $3
trillion for the first time since November 2021. The rise in total
crypto market cap – largely driven by BTC – is not surprising since
the Trump administration is speculated to establish a strategic
Bitcoin reserve akin to that of El Salvador under Nayib Bukele.
Bitcoin’s unprecedented price action has propelled the digital
asset’s total market cap beyond that of silver, solidifying it as
the 8th largest global asset by market cap in existence. With this
in mind, it will be interesting to see how BTC dominance (BTC.D)
behaves in the coming weeks, especially after facing rejection just
below the $90,000 level. Currently hovering slightly above 60%, a
fall in BTC.D could signal a capital rotation from BTC into
altcoins, potentially benefiting smaller-cap digital assets.
BTC trades at $87,767 at press time, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours.
The asset’s total market cap sits at $1.738 trillion. Featured
image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
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