The Bitcoin Rollercoaster: Why Every Upward Move Is Followed By A Steep Drop?
24 Mai 2023 - 11:20PM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold onto gains over the past few
weeks, giving back nearly all price increases shortly after they
are made. According to crypto analyst and trader Daan Foppen, this
phenomenon can be attributed to the outsized influence of futures
markets on Bitcoin’s price action. Foppen notes that Bitcoin’s spot
market, where investors buy and sell actual BTC, has been mainly
selling recently, as evidenced by the downtrend in spot market
prices. In contrast, moves upward in Bitcoin’s price have been
driven primarily by activity in futures markets, where traders
speculate on the future price of BTC using leverage. Related
Reading: Crypto Market Alert: Tether Market Cap Fuel Hopes For
Major Rally Bitcoin’s Downward Spiral Continues “The moves that are
made are mostly made with borrowed money, and these kinds of things
are not sustainable for a market,” says Foppen. Whether
stablecoin-margined or coin-margined, futures markets have been the
driving force behind short-term price impulses in Bitcoin recently.
However, the buying power used to move prices upward ultimately
evaporates, leading to gains to be given back. When futures
dominate trading, the underlying spot market struggles to keep up.
Price gains outpace actual buy demand for Bitcoin, leaving the
market susceptible to abrupt reversals once futures buying power
subsidies. This concept has been displayed clearly on Bitcoin price
charts over the past month, with initial price spikes evaporating
quickly. Furthermore, according to Daan Foppen, recent volatility
and price reversals in Bitcoin have been driven largely by
leveraged trading and liquidations in futures markets. Foppen
argues that the cryptocurrency’s price action over the past several
weeks has been characterized by “impulsive moves” upward and
downward that seem forceful but lack strength and sustainability.
For example, Bitcoin’s move to $27,400 on May 23 was mainly fueled
by short liquidations, as overleveraged short positions were wiped
out, creating a “snowball effect” upward. The subsequent sharp drop
was similarly driven by the liquidation of long positions that had
opened during the consolidation period with the expectation of
higher prices. BTC’s Increased Leveraged Positions Moreover, Foppen
points out that interest in Bitcoin futures has risen, indicating
increased leveraged trading activity. However, it is difficult to
determine whether new positions are predominantly short or long.
Funding rates, which indicate whether longs or shorts are paying
interest to balance the market, have been slightly positive
recently but remain around the baseline. Still, Foppen believes the
ingredients are in place for “a deeper flush downwards” in
Bitcoin’s price due to the likelihood that recently opened
positions are mainly longs. “What you shouldn’t do now is blindly
click the short button,” he warns. With highly leveraged and
unstable dynamics currently driving Bitcoin’s price action, Foppen
cautions that these are “very shaky conditions,” protecting one’s
capital should be the top priority for traders. “What you should
especially not do is let yourself get chopped up in this market,”
he says. Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Hits Over $40
Billion After Shanghai Upgrade: What It Means For ETH As of this
writing, BTC is trading at $26,200, down over 3% in the last 24
hours. However, the largest cryptocurrency in the market may
potentially stop its potential continuation of the downtrend at the
200-day Moving Average placed at $24,900, which may serve as a
threshold for bulls. Featured image from iStock, chart from
TradingView.com
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