By Louise Radnofsky and Nick Timiraos 

WASHINGTON -- President Donald Trump opened his first weekend in the U.S. capital since the inauguration with a call for a rally by his supporters and a swipe at his predecessor Barack Obama over a national-debt analysis that for now appears to favor Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump made the remarks in morning tweets starting at 7:25 with a call for millions of people who voted for him to have "their own rally" that he said would be "the biggest of them all!" in an apparent reference to recent marches and protests against his administration, including the women's march the day after his inauguration.

He also said Saturday that the national debt has decreased since he took office, compared with an increase under Mr. Obama, which he said hasn't been reported.

Multiple media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, report on federal budget figures that are released each month. The Treasury Department released January data earlier in February.

Mr. Obama was president until Jan. 20, when Mr. Trump was inaugurated.

During the Trump administration, Congress hasn't made any changes to spending or tax policy that would show up in federal borrowing figures. Mr. Trump's appeal to take credit for recent fiscal balances follows similar claims in television interviews earlier this week by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that rising stock markets were a report card signaling investors' confidence in the new administration.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal this past week, Mr. Mnuchin said the Trump administration shouldn't be judged on near-term changes in federal borrowing in its upcoming budget proposal to Congress next month. "We're inheriting a lot of issues from the Obama administration," he said. "When you talk about the budget, there's going to be the short-term budget where many things are already built in."

Mr. Obama took office in 2009 amid a significant economic downturn that led to a sharp decline in federal receipts, sending borrowing higher. His administration responded to that in its first month by continuing the George W. Bush administration's bank bailout, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, and a stimulus spending package that the president signed Feb. 17, among other measures. Democrats have generally praised the moves for arresting the free fall and saving jobs; Republicans have said they prolonged a slump and were wasteful, though they are more divided over TARP.

Monthly fluctuations in the national debt aren't unusual because they can reflect account surpluses during periods when the government is collecting tax revenues and deficits when it is paying out tax refunds or federal benefits. Annual changes in the national debt look past such monthly, calendar-related swings.

Also, the Internal Revenue Service this year must delay paying out refunds on returns for millions of low- and middle-income tax filers until Feb. 27. That could lead to an uptick in Treasury payments -- and a corresponding increase in the federal debt -- next month.

Congress will need to raise the federal borrowing limit after the current suspension of the debt ceiling expires on March 15. After that point, the Treasury Department will need to use emergency cash-conservation steps to prevent the debt limit from breaching the ceiling. Independent analysts estimate those steps can last through the summer. After that, the U.S. wouldn't be able to pay certain bills if the debt limit isn't increased

The national debt analysis appears on conservative websites, though the takeaway is now circulating more widely as a result of the tweet. Mr. Trump said in a news conference last week he believed he "inherited a mess" from Mr. Obama at home and abroad, though he came to office with a very different set of economic indicators that have remained strong, as he also noted Saturday.

Write to Louise Radnofsky at louise.radnofsky@wsj.com and Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 25, 2017 14:26 ET (19:26 GMT)

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